Since I started following US politics in the 1990s, 1 simple heuristic has been the most reliable guide: the GOP, at every juncture or decision point, will do/say/be the worst possible thing. The bulk of analytical errors in punditry trace to ignoring or doubting that heuristic.https://twitter.com/ATVSPoseur/status/1223317762061340674 …
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I still think about the head of the WA GOP, who left the party after Trump won and, in his own words, expected a parade of good-faith Republicans to follow him. But he turned around and...there was no one. He was blindsided by the nature of the party *he helped run*.
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Last, last thing: if you want to see the ultimate example of how liberals have deceived themselves about the nature of the GOP...watch West Wing. Arnold Vinick is the Republican of the center-left imagination, a fantasy they mistook for reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Vinick …
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Last, last, last thing: worth remembering that people who DO accurately diagnose the GOP have consistently been marginalized as "partisan extremists." Being correct over & over & over again has done approximately nothing to diminish this dynamic; it is still operative.
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One episode that illustrates my point: the GOP's famous post-2012-election "autopsy." It lamented an increasingly old, white party & recommended reaching out to minorities, women, & young people -- and, specifically, softening on immigration.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/03/what-you-need-to-read-in-the-rnc-election-autopsy-report/274112/ …
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Those of us with an appropriately dismal view of the GOP looked at those recommendations & immediately concluded they were fanciful nonsense, that there was too much gathered momentum toward white identity politics for elites to be able to engineer a course correction.
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But it was *exactly* what VSPs & mainstream pundits wanted to hear, exactly the GOP they'd been imagining for so long, so they heralded it as a turning point. We know how that turned out: the dirty hippies were correct, the VSPs biffed it again, & no one learned anything.
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Kraj razgovora
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The only satisfying thing about this three-year descent into the pit has been watching it dawn on Bill Kristol and his ilk that oe six-pack never gave a shit about supply-side economics and the Laffer Curve.
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I still feel uncertain about just how far that revelation has spread, and how deeply it's been appreciated. I worry Kristol is an outlier & many others continue to cling.
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Or, they're full of it.
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No one of either party who has lived these decades in the Deep South could be under any illusion about the nature of the modern GOP base.
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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