Since I started following US politics in the 1990s, 1 simple heuristic has been the most reliable guide: the GOP, at every juncture or decision point, will do/say/be the worst possible thing. The bulk of analytical errors in punditry trace to ignoring or doubting that heuristic.https://twitter.com/ATVSPoseur/status/1223317762061340674 …
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One final thing on this: it's worth noting that no one has been more consistently surprised by the devolution of the GOP than center-right and "moderate" Rs. Their proximity to the party did not help them see it more clearly. If anything, the opposite is true.
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I still think about the head of the WA GOP, who left the party after Trump won and, in his own words, expected a parade of good-faith Republicans to follow him. But he turned around and...there was no one. He was blindsided by the nature of the party *he helped run*.
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Last, last thing: if you want to see the ultimate example of how liberals have deceived themselves about the nature of the GOP...watch West Wing. Arnold Vinick is the Republican of the center-left imagination, a fantasy they mistook for reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Vinick …
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Last, last, last thing: worth remembering that people who DO accurately diagnose the GOP have consistently been marginalized as "partisan extremists." Being correct over & over & over again has done approximately nothing to diminish this dynamic; it is still operative.
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One episode that illustrates my point: the GOP's famous post-2012-election "autopsy." It lamented an increasingly old, white party & recommended reaching out to minorities, women, & young people -- and, specifically, softening on immigration.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/03/what-you-need-to-read-in-the-rnc-election-autopsy-report/274112/ …
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Those of us with an appropriately dismal view of the GOP looked at those recommendations & immediately concluded they were fanciful nonsense, that there was too much gathered momentum toward white identity politics for elites to be able to engineer a course correction.
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But it was *exactly* what VSPs & mainstream pundits wanted to hear, exactly the GOP they'd been imagining for so long, so they heralded it as a turning point. We know how that turned out: the dirty hippies were correct, the VSPs biffed it again, & no one learned anything.
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The scary thing is rgey usually do something worse than imaginable
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Trump will jail his opponents and pardon individuals who harm Dems he finds to be threats and GOP will be okay with it. Or Trump will kill opponents or let such harm happen to enemies and GOP will be okay with it.
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Make some crazy demands and shut down the government or default on the debt next time there's a Democratic president? I'm surprised this was minimal for Obama
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