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drjenndowd's profile
Jenn Dowd
Jenn Dowd
Jenn Dowd
@drjenndowd

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Jenn Dowd

@drjenndowd

Prof. of Demography & Population Health @UniofOxford @OxfordDemSci. Data, Epidemiology, Infections/Immunity, COVID-19. 🇺🇸 in 🇬🇧.Nerdy Girl @DearPandemic

London & Oxford, England
scholar.google.com/citations?user…
Joined December 2008

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    Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

    1/ Did the Sturgis bike rally cause 266,796 new cases of COVID-19? Probably not. Lesson- Beware viral studies that confirm your pre-existing beliefs so satisfyingly. (Long) thread: https://slate.com/technology/2020/09/sturgis-rally-covid19-explosion-paper.html … @FutureTenseNow @EricTopol @slate @govkristinoem @DearPandemic #Sturgis

    8:12 AM - 11 Sep 2020
    • 357 Retweets
    • 769 Likes
    • John K.C. Holliday LYDIA ARANDA MA. President S. Arizona Border Team Phil takes the 🚇 Nora Dave S. Vanessa Blakeslee turn on Exposure Notifications on your phone K i m b e r l y K i n c h e n is #TransitTrekking
    28 replies 357 retweets 769 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        2/ Like most people working on COVID-19, I am of the strong belief that mass gatherings during a pandemic are a bad idea. When this paper came out, the huge figures immediately hit the "I Told you So!" button in my & many people’s brains.https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13670/the-contagion-externality-of-a-superspreading-event-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-and-covid-19 …

        3 replies 6 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        3/ The first red flag is the huge number itself-it doesn't pass the sniff test.pic.twitter.com/fpwEBqXKpY

        2 replies 5 retweets 78 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        4/ The rally had an estimated 350-460K attendees, spread over 10 days. To reach such a huge # of 266K over 4 weeks, a LOT of transmission would have to occur both at the rally & in home counties (where cases were counted). No transmission model is mentioned, however.pic.twitter.com/bM4NwHO4ce

        2 replies 6 retweets 58 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        5/ It requires some mental gymnastics to imagine a scenario where over 200K event attendees became infected at the rally itself. Even with bleak assumptions of 1 % of attendees already infectious (spread over 10 days), yet well enough to ride a motorcycle to South Dakota...pic.twitter.com/ioUZugyhKY

        2 replies 3 retweets 50 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        6/ & all of them were “superspreaders,” passing their infection along to another 10 people, back-of-the-envelope math makes it hard to get in the ballpark of this number of infections that could have happened at the rally.pic.twitter.com/uwPN9ZnvO1

        2 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        7/ What about the attendees spreading the infection upon returning home? Recall the authors measured increased cases in *home* counties (defined by cell-phone pings pre-Sturgis). This was a motorcycle rally, with some "high inflow" counties far away like CA, NV & FL.

        1 reply 2 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        8/ Many attendees likely rode their bikes home & the lure of the open road in August after months of worldwide lockdown may have even induced many riders to take a meandering path home. (Some may have flown-I've since learned there are bike transport services for such events).pic.twitter.com/xVlJF4NUkl

        2 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        9/ Even accounting for people leaving early or going directly home, this leaves v. little time for so many infected riders to get home, infect others, incubate, get tested (with delays),& have these infections show up in county statistics by Sept. 2, just 2 weeks after the rally.pic.twitter.com/SlZbBo6vi8

        2 replies 3 retweets 50 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        10/ How could such seemingly implausible numbers be estimated? The authors don't track individuals or contacts, but use county-level case data from home counties, & employ a "diff-in-diff" analysis--challenging under the best of times, more so when modeling epidemic spread.

        1 reply 2 retweets 42 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        Jenn Dowd Retweeted Rex "garbage in" Douglass

        11/ See the @Slate article above for more on the challenges of diff-in-diff, as well as this insightful thread(s) from @RexDouglass:https://twitter.com/RexDouglass/status/1303379252742479872?s=20 …

        Jenn Dowd added,

        Rex "garbage in" Douglass @RexDouglass
        Today I'll be live tweet-reviewing my: 20th COVID-19 paper 6th paper purporting to be able to show mass-events do/don't spread COVID 3rd Dave et al. paper already this quarter using the same bad research design It's starting to feel like if Sisyphus ran a methods seminar https://twitter.com/SDSUCHEPS/status/1302480031638147074 …
        Show this thread
        1 reply 2 retweets 39 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        12/ Suffice to say the paper's own figures don't inspire confidence in the assumption of parallel trends:pic.twitter.com/yOwqLB7ELF

        2 replies 2 retweets 40 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        13/ Even taking the model at face value, the precision of the estimates suggests some caution is warranted with bold headline numbers as well:pic.twitter.com/hdPvmXZ3bF

        1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 11 Sep 2020

        Jenn Dowd Retweeted Matt Hauer

        14/ It will be hard to know exactly what went wrong with the analyses until others replicate, which I understand from @thehauer is proving a challenge:https://twitter.com/thehauer/status/1304166170652745729?s=21 …

        Jenn Dowd added,

        Matt Hauer @thehauer
        Heres some compact #RStats code to replicate the Sturgis COVID study using Google's `CausalImpact` package with 250 randomly selected counties for the counterfactual. I can't replicate the results. Here's a high-inflow county (Maricopa) showing fewer cases wrt the counterfactual. pic.twitter.com/MJmfyfp957
        5 replies 3 retweets 29 likes
        Show this thread
      15. End of conversation

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