why discrepancy between national and state accuracy?
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I don't know. But forecasts and decisions are based on the state-level data, not the national-level.
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Can you post the graph for third party candidates?
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@StatModeling is saying error was "shocking 2%" http://andrewgelman.com/2016/11/09/explanations-shocking-2-shift/ … Hard for public to understand.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@monkeycageblog Trump graph sure looks like a flawed sample and/or "shy" responders, no?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@monkeycageblog are the amounts they underestimated explained by Undecideds breaking big late to Trump?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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WI is at (46.3, 0.7), above NC, hiding behind PA. These are the unadjusted poll aggregates from eg http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/president/state/WI …
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depends on which poll - this was pretty accurate http://cesrusc.org/election/
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That was a national poll that badly missed the national results. How does that contradict
@DrewLinzer? - Show replies
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If state polls traditionally lag, would they have fully reflected a seismic event ~10 days before the election (Comey letter).
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