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drewg__'s profile
drew
drew
drew
@drewg__

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drew

@drewg__

electronic trading technologist, illiquid commodity futures enthusiast, hedge fund/HFT apologist, big idiot

NYC
Joined April 2009

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    1. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 20
      Replying to @drewg__

      These are not good businesses

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 Oct 21
      Replying to @garybasin @drewg__

      Interesting. Why?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 21
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @drewg__

      Alpha decay, unless it’s mostly a product with customers (eg execution services)

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 Oct 21
      Replying to @garybasin @drewg__

      IMOI alpha decay is no different from, for example, the Moore's Law treadmill. The value of these companies aren't the strats they currently run. It's that they are successful strat-making machines. Also, MMs definitely have customers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    5. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 21
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @drewg__

      The IP decays too quickly and the brand value is only for recruiting. MMs with customers are def worth more. Anyway, you know what multiples these things trade at 😅

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 Oct 21
      Replying to @garybasin @drewg__

      Definitely agree on brand value and the relevant multiples. Not sure if the multiple thing says more about these firms or about SaaS though. 🤣🤣🤣

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 21
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @drewg__

      These guys unlikely to grow much unless they can figure out how to expand beyond an alpha mill. SaaS cos can take over the world

      3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
    8. drew‏ @drewg__ Oct 21
      Replying to @garybasin @AgustinLebron3

      another lens through which you might think about this is that of profits/employee, where HFT clearly excels e.g. citsec has a trailing 3y avg of ~$2.7B ebitda. Assuming 2k employees globally, that gives profits per employee of ~$1.35M/employee, more than 3x the best FAANGcopic.twitter.com/qiuLTEe2hv

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. drew‏ @drewg__ Oct 21
      Replying to @drewg__ @garybasin @AgustinLebron3

      basically what i'm trying to say is that these firms produce a lot of value using vanishingly little human capital relative to FAANG, the huge EBITDA margins (and the huge dividends that go with) are the reasons we would all take out debt to buy an equity stake if we could

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 21
      Replying to @drewg__ @AgustinLebron3

      Meh depends on price I guess. Faang will 10x in size, these guys don’t have much pie left to eat

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      drew‏ @drewg__ Oct 21
      Replying to @garybasin @AgustinLebron3

      i think maybe that is our fundamental disagreement, the growth of (1) crypto (2) ETFs and (3) increased retail stock and options participation all make me bullish on the industry's prospects. Jump and HRT both announced wholesaling businesses just this year!

      9:46 AM - 21 Oct 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Agustin Lebron Gary Basin
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Oct 21
          Replying to @drewg__ @AgustinLebron3

          Ya im pretty bearish on how big their current opportunity can get. But if they can expand beyond, then there’s value

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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