drew

if your thesis is that she'll be down 70% in an enviroment where Qs are down 50%, sure, fine, I agree. But that's moved the goal posts *significantly* from the previous bear case.

My thesis is she’ll be down 70 when QQQ down 25

And this thesis is based on what? Run a TCA, if she sold out of her portfolio over many months and bought Qs she’s only have a negative excess return of like -10% last I checked. You can’t get a Hwang death spiral without huge leverage.

Bro I don’t know what a TCA is, and I don’t care to. $ARKK is down 33 pct from the highs. $QQQ is down 1 pct from the highs. The goalposts aren’t moving. The bears are gaining yardage. My thesis is she that she owns a bag of shyt. Bags of shyt trade terribly in bear markets

Wait, how did you model the market impact on redemptions on her portfolio? Or you didn’t?

unless there's a quirk in how her active etf works, it's the same as anything other ETF- ARKK holders sell to APs, APs exchange the shares for chunks of her portfolio, and sell those chunks in the open market. they are obviously incentivized to have the minimum impact possible.

There’s a big difference in that she is concentrated in very illiquid names that hardly trade on a good day