The idea that the very real environmental costs of EV input extraction somehow mean the net impact is higher than oil extraction and use is extremely funny.https://twitter.com/EnergzdEconomy/status/1395753299958276109 …
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Cost-benefit analysis is about as easy as policy evaluation gets and it somehow soars over the heads of these people. Anyhow congrats to the
gang for becoming anti-capitalist de-growthers I suppose, impressive ideology shift there.6 replies 0 retweets 26 likesShow this thread -
George Pearkes Retweeted Javier Blas
The de-growth faction of
Twitter continues to (ironically) grow!https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1397622810839748612 …George Pearkes added,
Javier BlasVerified account @JavierBlas5) What about returns? So far, there's little sign Big Oil can generate the RoACE it's used to in oil/gas in renewables. And I'm skeptical of EV charging as a business. So either accept lower RoACE (and cut divi as Shell / BP did), or stop capex and run the business for cash 5/5Show this thread3 replies 0 retweets 7 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @pearkes
I do think Javier's point about increasing capex being unsustainable for the e&p industry is basically correct tho--in a world where consumption is dropping YoY the question is whether returns can be made up on renewables in a way that doesn't require divi cuts from supermajors
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One interesting thing is that it's pretty easy to imagine a scenario where cutting back on oil production/E&P could actually be good for RoACE because they don't have to go further afield into more hostile places to keep reserves as high - focus on easy extraction instead
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Yeah I mean this is basically what Javier is saying, one option is just to stop new e&p capex and focus on keeping the margins you've got
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whoops was being excessively maximalist in that reading I'm sure he didn't literally mean 0 out capex
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Thing is even at $150 oil, if demand is falling in an inelastic way, not sure those assets actually work at scale.
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No doubt about it, and I don't have a view of where that tipping point is for domestic consumption but there will for sure be stranded assets and value destructive spinoffs/m&a while the industry tries to answer the question of which assets are the most durable
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broke: hammer China in press for funding coal plants in Africa as a cover for dumb great power and Military Industrial Complex reasons woke: invest sufficiently in green energy that all belt and road energy initiatives are medium-term zeroes
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Turning belt and road into a Landesbank situation to own the CCP.
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