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drewg__'s profile
drew
drew
drew
@drewg__

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drew

@drewg__

electronic trading technologist, illiquid commodity futures enthusiast, hedge fund/HFT apologist, big idiot

NYC
Joined April 2009

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    1. Quantian‏ @quantian1 May 14

      Per the BBG vax tracker, the US has covered 41.4% of our population (~60% of adults). Israel hit that mark in late Feb, and six weeks later their cases dropped by over 10x. If the US follows a similar trend we will have less than 10 daily cases/mm by July 1, similar to Singapore.pic.twitter.com/VsRIyiBrke

      4 replies 8 retweets 68 likes
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    2. Quantian‏ @quantian1 May 14

      One answer to the question of "why is the CDC lifting mask guidance now" is because, like... the vaccine hesitancy has largely been overcome? 70% of the eligible population has gotten it, another 10% plans to get it soon, and a big chunk of the last 20% got COVID already.

      4 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
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    3. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes May 14
      Replying to @quantian1

      56* of 18+ population and substantially less in large swathes of the country.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. Quantian‏ @quantian1 May 14
      Replying to @pearkes

      "Substantially less in large swaths of the country" mathematically implies substantially *more* in equally large swaths, and if the countryside is under-vaccinated relative to cities that's probably better than the counterfactual for stopping transmission!

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    5. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes May 14
      Replying to @quantian1

      The fact you think half the country at 50% and half at 90% is equally as likely to halt national case growth as 70% uniformly is a good sign we shouldn’t be paying attention to your takes here.

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
    6. Quantian‏ @quantian1 May 14
      Replying to @pearkes

      George this is not the Black Death, it's a respiratory virus that spreads quickest in densely populated indoor environments. While a 90/50 split distributed randomly would be less effective than 70 uniformly, a 90/50 split where the 90 is cities will absolutely be better.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    7. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes May 14
      Replying to @quantian1

      Oh I forgot they don’t have restaurants in places that aren’t near urban cores. How stupid of me!

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Quantian‏ @quantian1 May 14
      Replying to @pearkes

      Do people in SD go out to restaurants every meal? Visit coffee shops daily? Take the subway? Work in packed open plan offices? Live in crowded apartment buildings? Go to mega gyms? The average New Yorker is obviously exposed to way more people.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes May 14
      Replying to @quantian1

      I’m sure that’s why the peak case rates we’ve observed nationally were in *checks notes* the Dakotas.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      drew‏ @drewg__ May 14
      Replying to @pearkes @quantian1

      I don't have a dog in this one but it's funny to think about how oilfield stripclubs were probably superspreader sites

      9:57 AM - 14 May 2021
      • 1 Like
      • George Pearkes
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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