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I love how Nate is like "ohh the finance people are making spurious claims based on bad data" And then in the same sentence asserts that a single research note from JPM represents all finance workers (?) who all also apparently make bets on predictit (???)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1300446866295980033 …
And this is just flatly wrong, what makes prediction markets inefficient is that participation is arbitrarily limited to 5000 traders per question, and position sizes are also limited. They're not a real "market" in the way that term is usually usedhttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1300449268633866241?s=19 …
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