Bond traders have godlike omniscience and we should fear their powerhttps://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1239720900905312256 …
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historically inversions have just predicted recessions generically as defined by NBER, i.e. "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months" and i definitely think we're in for that, COVID-19 is a true exogenous demand shock
highly recommend this https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404 …
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That said tho I'm obviously memeing, there's no way this is what the bond markets had in mind when they sold off short dated treasuries and piled into the 10yr lmao
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I definitely enjoyed your tweet for the lolz; I guess I was thinking that the yield curve inversion predicted *recent* recessions and that there was like a Bernanke-esque school of thought that was beginning to ponder that future recessions could only be financial -> demand shock
End of conversation
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