Bond traders have godlike omniscience and we should fear their powerhttps://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1239720900905312256 …
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Okay but hold up a key part of this hypothesis has always been that the yield curve inversation is positively correlated with a financial recession; I think it’s hard to argue what’s coming is a financial recession
historically inversions have just predicted recessions generically as defined by NBER, i.e. "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months" and i definitely think we're in for that, COVID-19 is a true exogenous demand shock
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highly recommend this https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404 …
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That said tho I'm obviously memeing, there's no way this is what the bond markets had in mind when they sold off short dated treasuries and piled into the 10yr lmao
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