Lol this is like the 5th one of these I've seen in the past week. Every fintwitter person has their yield curve hat onhttps://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1162144419015012352 …
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Replying to @drewg__
These are driving my insane; I wish people would just tweet it out rather than inane polls. The yield curve inversion can be explained in like 280 characters!
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Replying to @neekknack
“Bond yields are expected to increase the longer the timeframe because, all else equal, the economy is expected to grow -so the curve ‘goes up’ over time; when the curve goes down it means the bond market expects growth to flatten or decline over time -as in a recession”
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Replying to @neekknack
My preferred explanation is something like: A bond trader spills the blood of a newborn fawn over the minutes of the Fed, and if at the end of the ritual they percieve dark magicks, they sell their 10yr T bills. Eventually they become clairvoyant & predict a recession.
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Replying to @drewg__
First, you gather bones from a crypt, crucially including an intact skull and ribs. Next, you place a dead heart in the ribs and chant “Sweet Mother, Sweet Mother, lend me your ear” until the Night Mother sends someone to tell you how likely a recession is. Super simple stuff.
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It's the most fun the rates desk will have all year! (Well, that and comp time lmao)
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