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#Wuhan #coronavirus likely to become a #pandemic, per many top infectious disease experts.
Dr. Anthony Fauci: “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic."
Experts can't yet predict how many will die.
#2019nCoVhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage …
In the last 3 weeks, the number of confirmed #2019nCoV cases has soared from ~50 in #China to 14,000 in 23 countries + 300 deaths.
The real number is much higher. Epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases of #Wuhan #coronavirus is *100,000 or even more*.
The spread of #2019nCoV (≥14,000 new cases in ~3 weeks) is much faster than when SARS and MERS emerged.
SARS was vanquished in 2003 after spreading for 9 months with only 8,098 confirmed cases. MERS has been circulating since 2012, with only ~2,500 known cases.
#coronavirus
People keep asking: how deadly is this new #coronavirus?
Answer: it's too early to know. Need: blood tests to see how many were exposed, household studies to learn how often it infects close contacts, and genetics to determine whether some strains are more dangerous than others.
What does seem certain: #Wuhan #coronavirus likely will be a #pandemic (epidemic on ≥2 continents). Not good, especially for countries with fragile healthcare systems.
The best we can do: BUY TIME (containment) to get a treatment/#vaccine.
@thespybriefhttps://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1224116538145415172?s=20 …
More on mortality: current data suggest ~2% mortality for #2019nCoV, but it's very likely that MANY cases, especially in people with no/few symptoms, were not tested/reported.
Experts think the real mortality likely will be LOWER, once ALL are counted.https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1224120205640597505?s=20 …
300 out of 100k isn't worse than flu? Curious
you are assuming 300 is correct as well
Almost every case is related to someone who recently visited Wuhan. Obviously a city of 11 million will cover a large area. Metro New York is 8.6 million. Imagine anyone saying someone who recently visited New York was sick with XYZ. New York is huge!
Did everyone who travelled from Wuhan meet at the same coffee shop? Or was the virus far more wide spread and by that measure you’d think the cases should be FAR higher. Or perhaps everyone who went through the airport got infected, in that case... I predict more cases everywhere
It's officially 16,750+ cases now, & 362 deaths.
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