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The numbers provided earlier today assume nothing is done to mitigate the spread between now and then. We’re hoping all the things we’re doing now will mitigate the spread. 4/9
We’re making AZ projections using national & international models for the spread of #COVID19, including those from China, United Kingdom and Harvard. 5/9
This is a dynamic and ever-changing situation, and we will be working to gather the best data & make decisions on a real-time basis that will save lives and slow the spread of coronavirus in order to avoid a worst-case scenario. 6/9
The Enhanced Surveillance Advisory issued by Gov @dougducey will provide additional data to assess the health of our healthcare system. 7/9
The primary focus of this projection is to better prepare for the impact on our healthcare system and anticipate resource needs. 8/9
While we expect these timelines and numbers to change, #publichealth is working to increase our healthcare capacity and protect Arizonans from #COVID19. 9/9
Is the latter model, an SEIR model using ODEs?
When it became clear these models were wrong, you should have sought the opinion of others and issued a public report.
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