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From 2015, but if you were to read one piece on AI... this is the one. Stands the test of time surprisingly well! waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi

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Well it's almost 3 years since this article was published. And I have yet to feel any hockey stick "exponential" progress as forecasted! :-O

The only thing exponential is the number of papers about GANs etc ...

Exponential are shaped like piecemeal functions - the first piece is low gradient linear - little to no progress

Then it suddenly gets crazy. E.g. Warren Buffet made 99% of his wealth after he turned 60.

The issue is that it isn't a falsifiable prediction. If it doesn't happen you can always make the argument "we haven't hit hypergrowth YET"

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That's true for all tech tho. We don't know which of the things we build will be successful.