Today the NASDAQ reversed a >4% intraday loss to close the day higher. Here are the other times that happened and the fwd returns in x+# of days.
The main takeaway is this is bear market stuff. Not bullish.
inspired by a tweet from HT Gitt
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to be clear this is using futures, close to close... that's why i have much larger sample than bespoke as they used cash (only NY time zone action). neither approach is better or right or wrong, really imo
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Bet if you do that with the dow and lower the threshold to 3% results would be bullish
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yes that would yield a huge sample so I'm sure bullish due to underlying trend.
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bro you’re extrapolating off two data points - how is this even vaguely credible?
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Well is the situation today comparable to the dotcom and housing crashes and succeeding recessions?
Strong projected growth this year and valuation metrics approaching mean suggest it's not in any way comparable.
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growth was projected to be strong in 2000 and 2008 until long after it turned. there are some similarities (NASDAQ bubble = housing bubble = Web3 and FANGMAN bubble?) .. and some differences. the main takeaway is: volatility clusters. huge up days are not bullish, generally
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yes i was trading like a honey badger and wondering whether LEH was going to pay my bonus :]
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I remember all these tweets off the March 2020 lows saying bear market rallies look like this.
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Yep nothing works every time you can see that right in the table If trading was that easy it wouldn’t pay so well.
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