1.5 degrees Paris climate target not ‘safe or appropriate’ given #climate tipping point risks, ‘major rethink’ required: new report out today climatecodered.org/2022/05/15-deg
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David Spratt
@djspratt
Research Director, Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. breakthroughonline.org.au. Personal tweets. Blog: climatecodered.org
David Spratt’s Tweets
The fact that so many progressives will fall in behind a plan to intensify the commodification of nature because it's presented by a smooth and sophisticated neoliberal rather than by Morrison fills me with utter despair
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Reality check: I doubt that total #climate emissions will be significantly lower (>10%) in 2030 compared to 2020. Gas and oil are still growing, and coal after some decline has some rebound due to Ukraine war and climate extremes as in this article.
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Another day in Australia #climate politics and a Labor government approves another new coal project. With a straight face, Qld Resources Minister says approval for stage 3 of the New Acland project given after ‘careful consideration’ (sic).
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The drought in Europe is one of the worst in 500 years, and it has been intensified by human-caused climate change.
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Which is why Jim Hansen says declining aerosols and loss of cooling mask plus continuing high emissions will drive accelerated rate of #climate warming next two decades. 1.5C around 2030, 2C in late 2040s on current emissions trajectory.
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Replying to @_ppmv @lorac_ny and 27 others
This response sums it up.
There are very few signs of rapid reduction in GHG emissions let alone complete cessation.
Cooling aerosol emissions are rapidly being reduced in practice.
In the coming decades there is a lot of warming in the pipeline.
twitter.com/Timlagor/statu
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Great to see Australian #climate scientists advocate the goal of cooling the Earth in order to achieve a return to pre-industrial conditions
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If we succeed in reducing climate warming, we’ll soon face a cooling climate for the first time in living memory. How much and how quickly do we want our planet to cool? And how can we prepare ourselves for it? @AndrewKingClim writes for @ConversationEDU
go.unimelb.edu.au/398e
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I think we could all agree that the magnitude of risk is often poorly understood and there continue to be powerful forces with vested interests in delay - and all the messaging & politics that goes with that.
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There is a narrative that Chinese coal use peaked in 2014. But did it?
Chinese coal use in 2021 is well above the peak, by almost 5%!
Maybe 2021 is a one off, but this "China peaked coal" narrative is premature. Maybe plateaued? Bust still...
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New paper on “catastrophic” #climate impacts echoes our "What Lies Beneath" analysis on fat-tail, existential risks & IPCC reticence, published 4 years ago. At Breakthrough, we try to fully acknowledge our sources and those researchers who have inspired us climatecodered.org/2022/08/high-p
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New paper on “catastrophic” #climate impacts echoes our "What Lies Beneath" analysis on fat-tail, existential risks & IPCC reticence, published 4 years ago. At Breakthrough, we try to fully acknowledge our sources and those researchers who have inspired us climatecodered.org/2022/08/high-p
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It is not a question of some #climate risks v. none. Eg, what are risks of not cooling Arctic for summer sea-ice loss, accelerating Greenland ice mass & permafrost carbon losses and so on? Then we can debate the risks of climate interventions against not intervening risks.
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Replying to @PGDynes @JamesGDyke and 20 others
The IPCC AR6 WG2 report says: "Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented, introduce a widespread range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood (high confidence)".....
report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPC
(see SPM B.5.5 page SPM-20)
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Agree. We are now in a world of least worse options. 2C requires emissions halving 2020-2030; we are not even close. So choice is optimistically 2.5-3C and tens of metres of sea-level rise in the system, or less with climate interventions. That’s the real #climate decision.
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Replying to @richardabetts @JamesGDyke and 20 others
Because there’s no risks with the alternative right? Anyone who thinks EEI can be balanced by emissions reductions alone at this late stage is delusional. And I support SAM - not SAI where there are undoubtedly more risks.
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#Climate emergency declarations around the globe - all the figures updated in one fact sheet. No excuses for not being able to quote the numbers! cedamia.org/fact-sheets/
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It's been clear for years that we are in the climate endgame. The voices who warned were offered little space in politics. This needs to change. For example offer great series of publications to get up to speed.
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John Schellnhuber outlines these dynamics in the 2018 climate risk report by @djspratt. They are counterintuitive. Consider reading & sharing 
Go players know that we don't think in the endgame as in the opening. Ours is the endgame, we need to rethink. breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath
Go players know that we don't think in the endgame as in the opening. Ours is the endgame, we need to rethink. breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneathShow this thread
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ASLCG urges government to structure a climate-security risk assessment as a transparent process that includes an expert panel drawn from within and outside government, utilising the best expertise available. Download the full implementation proposal: aslcg.org/reports
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And exactly what we said four years ago about IPCC ignoring high-end possibilities in “What Lies Beneath: The scientific underestimation of existential #climate risks” breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath
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I'm thinking Prof. Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann is going to have a lot of blocking of mainstream media outlets to do today.
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Tomorrow ASLCG will launch a detailed proposal backed by former defence and security officials, urging the government to capture the full range of #climate-related security threats and identify critical action. Join the public forum: ‘A Nation At Risk' aslcg.org/forums
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“Facing a future of accelerating climate change while remaining blind to worst-case scenarios is naive risk-management at best and fatally foolish at worst”.
miragenews.com/potential-to-e
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Today's edition of reports how ASLCG outlines the dire implications of climate-change-enhanced global and domestic food insecurity. Read more:
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Sad to hear of his passing, but what a life. Perhaps the most original thinker of our time, who sparked Earth System science and rang the #climate bell with chilling clarity. James Lovelock, creator of Gaia hypothesis, dies on 103rd birthday
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A HUGE contributor to our understanding of our Planet! Many thanks ❤️
James Lovelock, creator of Gaia hypothesis, dies on 103rd birthday | James Lovelock | The Guardian
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This report (along with IPCC 1.5C and ’s #DeepAdaptation paper) scared the shit out of me and triggered me into action.
Schellnhuber’s forward (and crying wolf):
“Unfortunately for us, the wolf may already be in the house.” 2/2
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As the Government prepares to implement our nation's first climate-security risk assessment, we explore what pathways can help us chart a course of action to capture the full range of threats and address the major implementation challenges. Forum Bookings: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist
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So would support campaign against the proposed third Tullamarine runway because it drives an increase in aviation emissions?
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Replying to @AlyxG @djspratt and 3 others
But given 48.2 per cent of Australians have at last parent born overseas, acting as if people should never fly is not exactly a just transition. This piece isn’t suggesting people hop on jets willy-nilly like a Jenner.
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WTF is doing going all soft sell over air travel, the single worse climate warming action a person can take? I thought it was a #climate emergency? Or is that just for the front page, not the indulgence section?
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“Nothing feels better than going out into the world with little more than a few clothes, your swimmers and your passport.” | @Alex_Carlton talks to hand-luggage evangelists about how they do it.
theguardian.com/travel/2022/ju
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Keep calm & carry on: Another media outlet telling its readers that flying, the most global heating single thing you can do, is ok. And in so doing, undermining the necessity of any climate emergency response they advocate elsewhere.
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So much for the climate election
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This is a map of mass coral bleaching on the #GreatBarrierReef in early 2022, which occurred after the latest Australian State of the Environment Report was completed.
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Translated: a lobby of Labor members says Labor is right and Greens are wrong on #climate targets. And media think that is a story?? PS: High per capita emitting nations like Australia need to be at zero by 2030 on basis of equity, as has shown.
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A message from the activist group LEAN that lobbies Labor for higher climate ambition. The Greens will ruin climate consensus if they sink Labor’s 43% target @msmarto #auspol theguardian.com/australia-news
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New UK aviation strategy launched – gvt plans to allow unlimited growth of air travel. The sector will blow its share of the 2035 emissions reduction target by 29 million tonnes, or 790%. Costs to clean up will be significant, human and economic. Responsibility abdicated. /1
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… whilst recognising that a portion of the EEI is methane which is short lived, so “locked in” calculation needs to account for cooling from methane drop as well as warming from aerosol loss.
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LIW (locked in warning) exists & is > 0 because the current EEI > 0. The current value of EEI at 1.5W per m2 can increase by about another 1.3W per m2 when the skies clear of air pollution following full decarbonization. The total outstanding EEI is therefore between 2-3 W per m2 twitter.com/djspratt/statu…
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If aerosol cooling is high as Hansen et al suggest then going to zero will result in more #climate warming as aerosol mask is lost. Many other questions, too: continuing warming from carbon cycle changes eg permafrost, eastern Amazon etc. Not QED!
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Lots of threads in response to this, @djspratt - I’d be grateful for any input from you/@BreakthroughCCR
twitter.com/AndMedh/status…
twitter.com/AndMedh/status…4
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feel like this should be more widely known...eh?
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2 degrees = a good chance we will end our civilization.
Scale of destruction beyond our "capacity to model."
The destruction at 1.2 is horrifying and there are feedback loops everywhere and Greenland has tipped.
#ClimateEmergency
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Western Europe is staring down what could be one of its most severe heatwaves in history.
Temperatures will be as high as 20C (36F) above normal.
The United Kingdom could record its first 40C (104F) in history.
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Early modeling suggests a ‘heatdome’ is building over continental Europe which could lock in sweltering temperatures for the rest of the summer. We are just getting started with this. Just how bad could this get?
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