#Futurist rule 1: any futurist who says, "X is impossible in 10 years" is more likely than not to be wrong.
Futurist rule 2: any futurist who says, "everyone will X within 10 years," is almost certainly wrong.
Logistic growth curves spend a lot of time between 0% and 100%.https://twitter.com/Genomethics/status/990971269456781312 …
Sure but that's down 100000% in ten years, and the last 0s are on the chopping block. I can't imagine a 10-year horizon where it isn't 'free'.
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It really does depend what X is. A futurist holding a fresh iPhone in 2007 who said "everyone will have one of these in 10 years" would be closer to correct than not.
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The last 30% often have different dynamics and a more complex adoption ecology than the earliest 50%. Consider what the data suggested in 2014 (and how). Then check *actual* population adoption in 2016… and 2018. The bar didn't move at all, when early projections said 98%.pic.twitter.com/NahqBFLgB5
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You aren't wrong, of course. Both numbers are above 50%, except actual iPhone use — market share was eaten by Android. But to expect anything to go to completion, which words like "everyone" suggests, is often unsupported by eventual data.
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That tracks with how 'everyone' is used in practice. In conversation we often follow this with "well, *practically* everyone..."
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I'm comfortable predicting that sequencing will be a standard part of the birth process for most people in 10 years. Including the Amish, but probably not Jehovah's Witnesses or Christian Scientists.
End of conversation
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