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djinnius's profile
sam atman
sam atman
sam atman
@djinnius

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sam atman

@djinnius

Philosopher of letters. Math nut. Wizard. ~wep

back into lunar orbit
github.com/mnemnion
Joined March 2009

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    1. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017

      So this is fun: I'm figuring out reasonable prices of things in advanced biotech and dry nanotech futures.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      I needed a ruler to price things against, so I used energy. As most energy comes from solar, land ends up being the scarce resource.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      Alternatively, if you like fusion or cheap fission, you still need to dump the waste heat somewhere, so land remains the scarce resource.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      The price of stuff continues to fall (as it has!), so atoms and energy get cheaper in land terms.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      I haven't got around to figuring out a price for human labour yet, so don't ask me. I will probably need to sleep on it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      My baseline for energy today is $10/GJ; this falls to $2.5/GJ delivered by the middle of the Automation Age (that we are just starting)…

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      …it falls again to $1/GJ in the Advanced Biotech Age, due to thin-film solar at ~7% efficiency based on the price of rural Ottawa scrubland.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      It then falls again in the Dry Nano Age to $0.04/GJ delivered using solar black (maybe 70% efficient) and good energy storage.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      Once I have the price of energy, I can make reasonable estimates of the price of materials by using an energy denominator.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      For instance, steel is now 30 GJ/tonne, polyethylene 120 GJ/tonne, and rice 40 GJ/tonne.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      sam atman‏ @djinnius 19 May 2017
      Replying to @Wikisteff

      Human output varies but a reasonable average for sustained human labor is 150 Watts. Hope that helps.

      7:16 PM - 19 May 2017
      • 1 Like
      • Steffen Christensen
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 19 May 2017
          Replying to @djinnius

          Ha! ^_^ 👍 I would *hope* that we could do labour more valuable than our energy expenditure! 😊

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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