So this is fun: I'm figuring out reasonable prices of things in advanced biotech and dry nanotech futures.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
I needed a ruler to price things against, so I used energy. As most energy comes from solar, land ends up being the scarce resource.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
Alternatively, if you like fusion or cheap fission, you still need to dump the waste heat somewhere, so land remains the scarce resource.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
The price of stuff continues to fall (as it has!), so atoms and energy get cheaper in land terms.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
I haven't got around to figuring out a price for human labour yet, so don't ask me. I will probably need to sleep on it.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
My baseline for energy today is $10/GJ; this falls to $2.5/GJ delivered by the middle of the Automation Age (that we are just starting)…
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Replying to @Wikisteff
…it falls again to $1/GJ in the Advanced Biotech Age, due to thin-film solar at ~7% efficiency based on the price of rural Ottawa scrubland.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
It then falls again in the Dry Nano Age to $0.04/GJ delivered using solar black (maybe 70% efficient) and good energy storage.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
Once I have the price of energy, I can make reasonable estimates of the price of materials by using an energy denominator.
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Replying to @Wikisteff
For instance, steel is now 30 GJ/tonne, polyethylene 120 GJ/tonne, and rice 40 GJ/tonne.
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Human output varies but a reasonable average for sustained human labor is 150 Watts. Hope that helps.
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Replying to @djinnius
Ha! ^_^
I would *hope* that we could do labour more valuable than our energy expenditure!
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