DJ Capelis

@djcapelis

Volcano Lip Dance Troupe Coordinator

San Francisco, California, USA, Earth
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2008.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    Millions of people in and near Wuhan have had to give up their travel plans during the one major vacation period there per year to stay in quarantine and try to lower the spread rate of the new coronavirus. Whether this is ultimately effective or not—the world owes them a debt.

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  2. prije 21 sat

    Hubei Province is still in really serious trouble though. (Both my models suggest exposure to half the population there in 2-3 years.) Things for the rest of the world could easily accelerate. The data may be inaccurate and many caveats still apply. Thank a healthcare worker.

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  3. prije 21 sat

    Broadly, since last night all of the statistical models I’ve examined show that this fear is not super rational at the spread rate shown in the current confirmed case data. The virus is spreading slow enough we can likely make a vaccine in time.

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  4. prije 21 sat

    Please note the usual disclaimer: rank amateur epidemiology hour up in here. But I didn’t find the data I was curious about so I asked my computer to help me make it.

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  5. prije 21 sat

    Based on some naive statistical modeling there seems to be increasing evidence that the amazing response to 2019-nCoV is becoming effective at slowing spread outside Hubei. I also updated last night’s graph. Today’s situation report was especially promising outside of Hubei:

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    If some foreign correspondent could cover how preexisting bias against Hubei people is compounding the current discrimination they are facing because of the outbreak, I'd appreciate it. Ask your fixer about the nine head bird. It's not something I'm comfortable talking about.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Ok I never deny we've got our issues but this is the best China- building hospitals in record time.

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  8. 2. velj

    In theory, you’d hope to see different confirmed case number curves in these populations than in Hubei. So… I gave that a shot and graphed that. I was unable to reject the hypothesis that our response and containment measures are so far largely ineffective.

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  9. 2. velj

    I was curious if the spread rates of 2019-nCoV were lower in other areas given the aggressive response and containment measures being put into place between Hubei Province and the rest of China, and China and the rest of the world.

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  10. 1. velj

    On a lighter note: It is also completely rational, if you live in the Bay Area, to see this circus in the next two days before this show ends. This group is excellent:

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  11. 1. velj

    To be clearer: * Fear of active infection tomorrow outside China is not yet rational. * It’s also not yet rational to see any of this as a done deal. * It does seem rational to me to consider for these possibilities beginning in the next few weeks to months.

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  12. 1. velj

    (Correction: third order outside China. China itself is well past third order human to human transmission.)

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  13. 1. velj

    There’s not much to *do* about this. Viruses gonna virus. Public health authorities are going to do everything they can. Panic isn’t helpful, but it doesn’t seem unjustified to me to think through this potential outcome. With friends, family, or strangers as you see fit.

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  14. 1. velj

    Anyway I think it’s absolutely supported by the current science to be worried about this, to discuss it as an emergency and to make whatever plans you want with friends and family or even be worried on the Internet with strangers.

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  15. 1. velj

    The virus has been confirmed in 25 countries outside China. With vastly different healthcare systems. The idea that we will successfully isolate all these clusters seems unlikely. And so far even in *good* healthcare systems we’re struggling to do it.

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  16. 1. velj

    The case discovery curve is exponential. In the last 24 hours the new case influx is half of what the entire SARS outbreak was. The death toll is also exponential. Containment in China seems unlikely, with third order human-to-human transmission reported for the first time today.

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  17. 1. velj

    Okay I know it’s been cool to say coronavirus isn’t a big deal but at this point I’ve been reading each WHO situation report and I think fear that this will become a global pandemic that will kill at least 1% of the global population in the next two years is entirely justified.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Bob Rossing a fucktup Apple

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  19. 31. sij

    Spare a kind word for your super lawful aligned friends. They’re probably going through a lot right now. It may be difficult for them to figure out how to move forward in a world where the rules don’t work like they thought they did.

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  20. 31. sij

    In other news our establishment is now faced with a fairly blunt demonstration that our political system is not functional and is currently corrupt. This is the true value we will get from this impeachment trial. For many, it will be a tough, but necessary, realization.

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