Just received data from the 14th wave of the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics panel survey, which has been tracking a population-based sample of Americans' attitudes since late 2007. I will report the results in more detail soon, but here's an initial teaser. 1/n
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The value of this panel is that we've been tracking the same respondents since late 2007, so we can see the evolution of views over long periods of time. The disadvantage? You had to be 18 in late 2007 to be included. So no one under 30. 2/n
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Among the 1,107 respondents to the wave we completed just before the 2020 IA caucuses, Trump support in Nov-Dec 2016 was 37% vs. 41% for Clinton, so this sample is not badly off the mark on that one metric. 3/n
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This figure shows how four leading Dems do in a head-to-head match-up vs. Trump in November. Biden outperforms the other three, with higher levels of support across the partisan spectrum. 4/n
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Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg are obviously tightly bunched overall. But noteworthy that it looks like Buttigieg doesn't perform quite as well among independents who lean Dem but slightly better among those who lean Republican. 5/n
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So a few weeks ago, when I asked my followers who would be the strongest candidate against Trump, you all kinda nailed it: twitter.com/dhopkins1776/s 6/n
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Which Democrat, if nominated, would be the most likely to win a general election against President Trump?
Show this poll
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And for those of you who say, "oh, but what do general election match-ups mean many months out?" Check out this thread: twitter.com/dhopkins1776/s 7/7
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Last month, I used our panel survey to ask: in early 2016, when voters told us that they'd back one GOP candidate in the general (say Rubio) but not another (Trump), did they mean it? To a surprising extent, the answer was yes. But what about 2008? That's what I answer here. 1/n twitter.com/dhopkins1776/s…
Show this thread
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At the request of , and also because I was super curious, I made a transition matrix between Nov-Dec 2016 and the Jan 2020 Biden-Trump head-to-head result. Here:
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And here is the same (transitions 2016-2020) for a 2020 match-up between Sanders and Trump.
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This particular party ID question pushes people to indicate where they lean, so it may just be that the 3.9% of people coded as pure independents are atypical.
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Ignoring the fundamentals does you no favors here. Voters’ idea of Biden in the abstract as Obama’s right hand is very different from voters’ view of Biden when they get a good look at him.
Corrupt and senile doesn’t get elected president. That’s why Biden collapses late.
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Thanks for sharing! Very interesting. But if Biden continues to be an anemic campaigner, shouldn't we expect these numbers to change over the next few weeks as well?
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