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dgurdasani1's profile
Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

Senior Lecturer @QMUL Epidemiology, statistical genetics, machine learning. Intersectional feminist. Advocating for a better culture in academia. All views mine

Joined October 2017

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    1. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      Myth debunking: After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why? 🧵

      427 replies 3,855 retweets 8,560 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      Your risk of getting hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (any variant) depends on two things? 1. how likely are you to get infected? 2. what is your chance of getting hospitalised *once infected*

      38 replies 287 retweets 1,917 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      In simple terms, because omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection against omicron is vastly lower than with delta. This means risk of 1. is vastly increased- as you're less protected & also v. high background transmission.

      25 replies 302 retweets 1,912 likes
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    4. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      This risk would've been *much* lower with delta, as your chance of getting infected if vaccinated would've been much lower. You protection *once infected* (number 2. above) doesn't change much. But overall because 1. is hugely reduced, your total risk is actually higher.

      15 replies 225 retweets 1,679 likes
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    5. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      All the 'mild' takes compare omicron hospitalisations *once* infected, without accounting for the fact that omicron is infected people who're vaccinated and had past infection who wouldn't have been infected with delta at all because they were protected.

      19 replies 389 retweets 2,250 likes
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      Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

      So, it's increasing risk, rather than reducing it, by infection people who wouldn't have been infected with delta- which means we are actually at higher risk of severe disease - because of lower protection from infection with vaccination with omicron compared to delta.

      3:12 AM - 26 Dec 2021
      • 310 Retweets
      • 1,995 Likes
      • Echo Lawrence Susan Hatch TGY Fridays Morgane BlackHime 🌆🔥🖤 Nat aka ‘mild Cassandra’ 🐝🐝🐝 #COVIDisAirborne brk-b Adrian Engler L1413🍓 —#BlanquerTUE— Leucémie Pfizer 3/4 💉💉💉 Sondra Watkins
      26 replies 310 retweets 1,995 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

          Takes like this for example, completely miss the point:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/26/omicron-bleak-new-year-or-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-pandemic …

          23 replies 168 retweets 1,400 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

          Remember, a huge part of the omicron advantage is being able to infect people with previous immunity that delta wouldn't have been able to penetrate. To argue that this somehow leads to a reduction in risk, is frankly nuts.

          31 replies 856 retweets 3,523 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

          So be wary of 'conditional takes' - that discuss risk of hospitalisation *once infected* because they don't account for the risk of infection which is hugely increased, and overall risk individually depends on both.

          21 replies 275 retweets 2,085 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Deepti Gurdasani‏ @dgurdasani1 26 Dec 2021

          And also on takes that don't acknowledge that omicron is infecting people who wouldn't have been infected by delta- many with prior immunity so with protection from severe disease- but still be more likely to get ill overall because delta wouldn't have infected them at all.

          98 replies 234 retweets 1,805 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. Francis Ak'enamé‏ @SithElephant 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @dgurdasani1

          Idly wondering in a depressed manner if omicron may lead to faster waning of immunity against a variant that is more alpha or delta-like in March, enabling that's spread. Wear a mask. Limit contact as much as you can. Asymptomatic transmission is a problem.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. bert‏ @hipacrocapig 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @dgurdasani1

          Great point

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Bambino‏ @nahmatenotnow 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @dgurdasani1

          Protection from serious outcomes by Covid infection is still very high, so that a large number of vaccinated people will assess their personal risk as lower that in previous waves. From a individual perspective: Omicron infection >> Delta infection. How does that help compliance?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Bambino‏ @nahmatenotnow 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @nahmatenotnow @dgurdasani1

          People were vaccinated to make this possible. We need to assess how much at risk vulnerable, unvaccinated individuals are. If it’s considerably lower with Omicron than with prev. VOC it’s pretty much over in the conception of an average individual. Media’ll drive that pic as well

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. IamTHAL‏ @NoplaceReally 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @dgurdasani1

          IamTHAL Retweeted IamTHAL

          https://twitter.com/noplacereally/status/1475087601761767427 …

          IamTHAL added,

          IamTHAL @NoplaceReally
          Add this to a hospital system that is completely overwhelmed and on the verge of collapse and you can see why there is talk of a potential Omicron apocalypse. https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1475061938010865665 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Yacht Ninky  💙‏ @YachtNinky 26 Dec 2021
          Replying to @dgurdasani1

          The problem is your data produces scare curves because it's not nuanced enough. There are other variables being missed, as well as how the pandemic is playing out worldwide. Vaccines less effective, yes. But breakthrough infection is way less dangerous than it was.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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