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PHE report on variants just out. Highlights:
->90% of cases across England now delta
-delta ~66% more transmissible
-Most cases are in school age children
-30% deaths were among fully vaccinated and 17% in partly vaccinated
-cases of delta sublineage with K417N mutation
PHE still hasn't released data on delta cases in cases linked to schools over time- but we finally get an age distribution (after over a month of long technical reports!!)- Guess which age group infections are the highest in? Still, no masks in schools, no focus on ventilationpic.twitter.com/DzkJeOce3r
It's now widely prevalent everywhere in England with >90% frequency in almost all regions - whether we look at sequencing or spike drop out data.pic.twitter.com/Q6HITkRpUA
Unfortunately 42 deaths from the delta variant, of which 30% (12) are among fully vaccinated & 17% among partly vaccinated (21 days after 1 dose). Note: this doesn't tell us about level of vaccine efficacy, except it's less than 100%. Take precautions even if fully vaccinated.pic.twitter.com/ya6qMT4OWR
Rapid growth of delta continues- it's still growing about 2x (1.93 times to be exact) faster than B.1.1.7 (alpha) at this point in time. Shows the much higher level of fitness of this variant, and the difficulty in containing spread.pic.twitter.com/bIucSXAk1U
No of outbreaks of delta in in educational settings seem to have increased from 140 in the last report to 217 in the last week- suggesting there were *77* outbreaks in educational settings just in the last week.pic.twitter.com/zKKM5jQ4WQ
Data on common exposure (2 or more children with delta variant attending educational settings) shows *almost 1000* such events of 2 or more infected children attending the same educational setting in the *last wk alone*. Shows the likely huge level of transmission in schools.pic.twitter.com/boPUpba4K5
Case-control analysis examining secondary attack rates (proportion of contacts infected) in households suggests 66% higher transmission of delta variant compared to alpha (B.1.1.7).pic.twitter.com/WgeCtMXLd1
There's been another sub-lineage of delta emerging (AY.1) that has the K417N mutation (also found in the beta variant or variant first identified in SA). This mutation has been associated with immune escape, and is concerning. So far 36 cases identified.pic.twitter.com/RdafHcUFVi
We need to remember evolution of the virus isn't likely to end here. This to me is one of the biggest dangers of letting transmission continue at high levels. Even if this doesn't result in the same level of deaths as before, it will result in more long COVID & virus mutation.
And allowing virus mutations to continue at high rates as the virus replicates, alongside vaccination is a recipe for disaster - as this is the most favourable condition for selection towards escape. It isn't enough to surveil virus adaptation- we *must* prevent it.
There's no doubt delta will change the shape of the pandemic in the UK, and possibly across the globe, given it's level of fitness. It was really negligent of the govt to allow this into the country, & then do very little to prevent spread.
Remember we opened up on 17th May despite fully knowing that cases of this variant were doubling every week even at that time, & that it was likely to become dominant in a matter of weeks. Against advice from SAGE. Fully knowing that this could lead to hosp levels similar to Jan.
Our govt removed mask recommendations from schools, in May. There's no doubt schools have been a major area of spread, and played an important role in this variant gaining dominance in the UK. Delta cases (& infection rates) now highest among children.https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/06/11/covid-19-and-the-delta-variant-we-need-an-urgent-focus-on-mitigations-in-schools/ …
This variant poses a serious risk to public health. While the media continues to focus on 'freedom day', the question is what do we do now to prevent what is likely a large 3rd wave, which will lead to significant long COVID, hospitalisations & completely preventable deaths
And how to we prevent this happening again- due to new variants or sub-lineages emerging as transmission continues at high levels, or importing these from the next place they emerge (or have already emerged)? What happens if the next variant renders vaccines much less effective?
Just want to add that while these data don't tell us much about vaccine efficacy, previous estimates from PHE show reasonable protection against symptomatic disease with 2 vaccine doses. So taking that 2nd dose is critical for high levels of protection.
Want to thank @sanerefrain for pointing out that the increased transmissibility estimate should be 64% (the adjusted estimate) rather than 66% (the unadjusted one)
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