A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
And how do we even categorize what (I suspect) is the most common tendency in year-end writing: “extend the trend”? eg “the rising rate of terrorism will get much worse” or “stocks will soar to another record high.” Are these predictions of change or the status quo?
06:23 - 29. pro 2019.
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The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.