OK non-boomers: "Because so few young people voted, it did not matter that Mr. Sanders won them by huge margins, because Mr. Biden won the much more plentiful older voters."https://nyti.ms/2vwwYSC
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Also worth noting: Boomers were the one who got 18-year-olds the right to vote. Would be nice if their kids and grandkids used it more.
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This chart, from the Census Bureau, tells the story through 2012:pic.twitter.com/ING5X1TRGi
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In 2016 (which is not on that chart), turnout in the youngest cohort bumped up slightly -- the only group that did -- but it still lagged all other age groups, by a lot.
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Replying to @ktumulty
Workin’ on it!
#youthvote turnout DOUBLED in ‘18 vs 14 — biggest bump of any age cohort. And we’re still setting record turnout rates in these dem primaries. Just older folks are ALSO turning out at high rates. Check@CivicYouth for more2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Can you send me the data showing record turnout in dem primaries this year. Would love to see it!
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Ben Wessel Retweeted Scott Clement
Changing exit polls methodology ( https://twitter.com/sfcpoll/status/1235598822136516609?s=21 … ) makes year over year comparisons tough w/o looking at raw vote. So combo of
@CivicYouth estimates vs precinct-specific stuff at http://NextGenAmerica.org/turnout is giving me hope. But definitely a mixed bag across countryBen Wessel added,
Scott ClementVerified account @sfcpollReplying to @dellavolpeThese age comparisons are fraught given the significant changes to how the exit poll weights by age and education from 2016 to 2020. The changes will tend to make exit poll samples look older. See here from the big 2019 conference panel https://youtu.be/Yh72k0pG6So pic.twitter.com/ucu4l0WmKr1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
If exit polls are flawed and make 2016-2020 comparisons invalid, why would 2004 or 2012 GOP comparison carry more weight? I’m truly interested in seeing any data that shows a surge. I’m focused on big picture bec still time to motivate youth if we recognize they’re not engaged.
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Will let
@CivicYouth/@AbbyIK answer that one bc tbh, i don’t know! Certainly no obvious surge in one direction, but also no obvious “falling flat”, which I’m seeing oft repeated!1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Ben and John - There's a lot to potentially discuss here, and appreciate the conversation. We're standing pretty firmly on comparing to previous one-competitive-party-primary years for understanding the best overall comparison.
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Ok, the way I see it is that by Super Tuesday 2004 the Dem primary was not nearly as competitive as this one; I also assumed Dem to Dem competitive primaries within 4 years would be better approach then Dem to Rep across 8 years. Good news is, more elections and data coming soon!
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