is this allocating the votes based on share of electorate in exit polls? cc @yghitza
I know exit polls are imprecise,
But we need to work w/ what we have now.
In 12 states with comp elections-
Raw turnout up in 12/12.
But #youthvote is up in only 4/12, flat in 2.
Older Millennial/young Gen X up in 12/12
Older X/younger Boomers up 10/12
Seniors up in 11/12pic.twitter.com/p6UaV64Lti
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The way you get out the
#youthvote is... you wait for them to get older. -
Or you put Trump on ballot.
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Turnout / exit poll estimate of share of vote by age
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There was a recent survey suggesting that Bernie Sanders needs a "youth turnout miracle" to compensate for swing voters and moderates who will be reluctant to vote for him. In light of that data, aren't these trends pretty alarming for his campaign?https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data …
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These age comparisons are fraught given the significant changes to how the exit poll weights by age and education from 2016 to 2020. The changes will tend to make exit poll samples look older. See here from the big 2019 conference panel https://youtu.be/Yh72k0pG6So pic.twitter.com/ucu4l0WmKr
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When looking at unweighted data from both 2016 and 2020 (noisy, but not affected by new weighting), drop in 17-29 vote share is only half what is suggested by weighted results.
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Are independents and ex-Republicans factored for somehow?
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