This is a strong anti-Bayesian stand by Dan here. Of course, you can know what is more likely. You can be wrong, but to say you can't reasonably make some assumptions based on real data, fire up r, and assign probabilities is asinine and irresponsible.https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/1234885528236879873 …
If you can't guess on which candidate is stronger, how do we know a Democrat can win?
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You assess sources of strength and weakness and assign probabilities distributions of those. For example, Sanders strength relies on turning out new voters. We don't "know" if he will, but we can say given what we've seen so far and quality polling, a range of how likely that is.
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