If you all primary polls since 1980 that were conducted this far away from the election, and calculated how often the leader won you’d be right about 30% of the timepic.twitter.com/MOMhboTh7V
Who knows how #2020 primaries will play out, but in current environment, frontrunner status is meaningful, even in national polls.
In '16, @FiveThirtyEight published 670 GOP polls: Trump led 74% of them, Walker 10%, Bush 7%, 4% tied.
Published 775 Dem polls: Clinton led in 99%
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I'm trusting
this guy's numbers over the guy who tried to hashtag a number.
End of conversation
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Bernie is the nominee if Biden doesn’t run
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But was Trump leading the majority of polls conducted in early 2015? IIRC, he became more dominant in polls during the latter half of 2015. The Dem primary polls ~6mo from now will probably be more instructive (though not infallible: H. Clinton led Obama in every poll until Iowa)
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