Agree that 35% turnout would be a major shift for young voters. But long-standing tendency of survey respondents to be more politically engaged cautions against assuming turnout will match intent. Comparisons to 2014 might be more telling - what says @HarvardIOP poll?
I respectfully disagree w/ take here, not data. 4 yrs ago, 16% of young Americans voted, 2010 it was 20%. If #youth vote is close to the 35% ref here, it’s historic; if it’s off by 10 it’s difference maker. No one expects turnout to mirror older groups. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/11/young-voters-midterm-elections-turnout/1600466002/ …
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Discount was -11 in ‘10 (31 reported intent, 20% turnout via CPS); in ‘14 it was 24% & 16% turnout. Based on spring poll releases. Our last poll had 37% + much more energy fr Dems. I think mid-30s+ is fair for self reporting, which could be 50% jump in 4 yrs. Ours coming soon.
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I’d be ecstatic if 1 in 3 voted!
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