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deaneckles's profile
Dean Eckles
Dean Eckles
Dean Eckles
@deaneckles

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Dean Eckles

@deaneckles

scientist, statistician, @MIT professor

Cambridge, MA
deaneckles.com
Joined February 2007

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    Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 1 Nov 2018

    Dean Eckles Retweeted Ted Lieu

    Independence assumptions leading you astray... Just like for basically all poll-based forecasts except @FiveThirtyEight in 2016. Beware i.i.d.https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1058019466003415040 …

    Dean Eckles added,

    Ted LieuVerified account @tedlieu
    Why Dems will win the House: MATH. Dems will flip 17 seats easily. Need 6 more to win. Make it 9 in case we lose 3 D seats. At least 30 tossups. If Dems have 40% chance in each seat, what is chance we win 9 more seats? ** 90.6% ** Below is from my cool son. #ThursdayThoughts pic.twitter.com/yXVKZ1AB96
    4:57 PM - 1 Nov 2018 from Cambridge, MA
    • 3 Retweets
    • 30 Likes
    • Paramveer Dhillon Brad Spahn sol Dan Hopkins Daniel Klein Arindrajit Dube Josh Wills Bjorn Larsen José Vicente
    1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
      1. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 1 Nov 2018

        Dean Eckles Retweeted Ted Lieu

        Even if the individual contests are less related, the polling errors can still be!https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1058055704819326976?s=19 …

        Dean Eckles added,

        Ted LieuVerified account @tedlieu
        Replying to @mattyglesias
        There is some correlation, but candidates are different & districts are different & spending is different & endorsements are different. Our candidate in San Diego is running a very different race than our candidate in Kentucky. And giving Dems a 40% chance is quite conservative.
        1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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