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davidshor's profile
(((David Shor)))
(((David Shor)))
(((David Shor)))
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@davidshor

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(((David Shor)))Verified account

@davidshor

Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹

New York, NY
Joined November 2007

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    1. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 3 Feb 2021

      Thought it'd be interesting to update this graph with the past five years of data. Since 2012, white voters have become ~3.5% more Democratic and non-white voters have become ~3.8% more Republican. Trump presided over the largest decrease in racial polarization in decades! https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/634472914860015616 …pic.twitter.com/1lYRq8FYAm

      37 replies . 266 retweets 1,104 likes
    2. Chris Hayes‏Verified account @chrislhayes 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @davidshor

      This seems a bit disingenuous. I can..think of another pretty big factor!

      10 replies . 2 retweets 121 likes
    3. Chris Hayes‏Verified account @chrislhayes 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @chrislhayes @davidshor

      One way to look at his chart is that racial polarization continued on a very steady trajectory with a brief and obviously understandable interregnum of the only two elections with a black man on the ballot.

      9 replies . 2 retweets 120 likes
    4. This Tweet is unavailable.
    5. Chris Hayes‏Verified account @chrislhayes 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @mattyglesias @davidshor

      well but it's an interesting finding in that way! and you need to wrestle with it. maybe just *the fact of a black man on the ballot* is way more wildly racially polarizing than literally anything any candidate could say or do is the takeaway here

      3 replies . 2 retweets 58 likes
    6. Chris Hayes‏Verified account @chrislhayes 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @davidshor

      rather than the implied and sometimes explicit argument of "Trump had a lot of appeal to non white voters that commentators missed." ( I think it's probably both, but it's crazy to not look at the former case)

      2 replies . 1 retweet 33 likes
    7. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @davidshor

      Trump did no better with white voters in 2020 than George Bush did in 2004 when he ran against John Kerry. His performance with white voters was basically that of a generic Republican. There's little evidence that his message had any special appeal to white voters as a whole.

      1 reply . 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. @ijbailey‏ @ijbailey 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes and

      George Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote - more than Trump. Yet the commentary since November has been about some massive shift of Hispanics towards the GOP.

      2 replies . 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @ijbailey @chrislhayes and

      To be fair, I think that's because the shift in the Hispanic vote from 2016 to 2020 was pretty dramatic, and was surprising given that Trump was the candidate.

      1 reply . 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. @ijbailey‏ @ijbailey 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes and

      You need to define "dramatic" and based on what metric. Exit polling data, in my book, isn't sufficient to make that claim. We'll know in a few months with more comprehensive data. Also, we seem to be discounted the power of the perception of the economy and stimulus checks.

      2 replies . 0 retweets 1 like
      (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @ijbailey @JamesSurowiecki and

      My best guess based on looking at precinct data and vote history data across a bunch of states that the drop was something like 9% in support and 18% in margin. That's a lot!

      1:19 pm - 3 Feb 2021
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      • Либерально-демократический Eharding🇷🇺胜利
      1 reply . 1 retweet 2 likes

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