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Probably corrects about half of it.
@Nate_Cohn does a lot of other smart things though, so hard to say how it will shake out. - Show replies
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2018 didn't see much of a miss in PA, Mi, MN, Wi though. Mostly in deep red states, but yes, also in IA and OH.
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Hypothesis: (a) polling error is about hostility to / distrust of perceived elites, media, pollsters (b) Trump being in the race accentuates all this (1) he whips it up (2) brings out pollster-hostile voters on basis of personal loyalty
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District-level polling is pretty inconsistent with this take based on
@Redistrict's posts this past week.
End of conversation
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