Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

For the best Twitter experience, please use Microsoft Edge, or install the Twitter app from Microsoft Store.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
davidmanheim's profile
David Manheim
David Manheim
David Manheim
@davidmanheim

Tweets

David Manheim

@davidmanheim

Research and policy for making unlikely global catastrophes even less likely. @superforecaster. Previously @RANDCorporation, @PardeeRAND, @RMS

Israel
about.me/davidmanheim
Joined January 2009

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Balaji S. Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis Jan 22
      • Report Tweet

      Capitalism at its best can turn greed into positive-sum societal outcomes. Call this a civilizing structure. Conversely, social media at its worst is a decivilizing structure for pride & wrath. What are the civilizing structures for pride, envy, wrath, lust, sloth, gluttony?

      61 replies 59 retweets 396 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Meng Weng Wong‏ @mengwong Jan 22
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @balajis

      Pride: TED talks Envy: Instagram Wrath: Twitter Lust: Onlyfans Sloth: Twitch Gluttony: UberEats

      3 replies 8 retweets 41 likes
    3. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Jan 22
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mengwong @vgr @balajis

      I don't know what OnlyFans is, and I don't want to find out, but I'm remembering Tumblr. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK Jan 23
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @davidmanheim @mengwong and

      It's a platform where you pay money to hookers for dirty pictures. Think premium Snapchat.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Jan 23
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @mengwong and

      Reading this leaves me more knowledgeable, yet in a very real sense stupider than before I knew this information.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK Jan 23
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @davidmanheim @mengwong and

      A true Bayesian cannot be harmed by information 😉

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Jan 23
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RokoMijicUK @mengwong and

      A true Bayesian has infinite computing power. Landauer's principle says that this requires infinite energy, and by relativity, that's equivalent to infinite mass. What I'm saying is, if there are any true Bayesians, they're stuck inside black holes.

      4:21 AM - 23 Jan 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 12 Likes
      • Cause Of Problem Ian Hines Gianluca Truda Geneva Global Initiative Diamond-Grouping Anders Sandberg Enye Word StavGold Roko Mijic
      3 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Jan 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @davidmanheim @RokoMijicUK and

          David Manheim Retweeted David Manheim

          cc: @Noahpinion, @jim_savage_, @anderssandberghttps://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1220320739934556161 …

          David Manheim added,

          David Manheim @davidmanheim
          Replying to @RokoMijicUK @mengwong and 2 others
          A true Bayesian has infinite computing power. Landauer's principle says that this requires infinite energy, and by relativity, that's equivalent to infinite mass. What I'm saying is, if there are any true Bayesians, they're stuck inside black holes.
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Roko Mijic‏ @RokoMijicUK Jan 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @davidmanheim @mengwong and

          Objects with very high mass are also available on onlyfans. Just $15.99/month! https://onlyfans.com/FluffyBarbie 

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Enye Word‏ @EnyeWord Jan 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @davidmanheim @MakerOfDecision and

          That's why the holes are black... the Bayesians are using up all the information that comes their way.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Meng Weng Wong‏ @mengwong Jan 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @EnyeWord @davidmanheim and

          Old Bayesians don’t die, they just retire to the priory.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Anders Sandberg‏ @anderssandberg Jan 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @davidmanheim @RokoMijicUK and

          So we should beware the No True Bayesian fallacy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info