David Manheim

@davidmanheim

Research and policy for making unlikely global catastrophes even less likely. . Previously , ,

Israel
about.me/davidmanheim
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2009.

Medijski sadržaj

  1. 2. velj

    Evidently, conditional probabilities are hard. These prediction markets are not worth trusting, especially for low probabilities or precise estimates. (via ) Also, the Yang number is far less egregious than Hillary at... 6%?!? cc: ,

    6 replies 1 proslijeđeni tweet 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
  2. 31. sij

    Not sure that the recommendations here are the best ones - sick people should try to stay home, not just wear masks - but this was well done. (via mailing list)

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  3. 30. sij

    shared last night's latest China CDC update - , with a corrected Epi curve, below. The text, via Google translate, says this is for Mainland China, as of 24:00 on *January 27*. Per , blue is suspected, red is confirmed.

  4. 28. sij

    Seems like a good time to mention a preprint I wrote about the dynamics of how worst-case infectious diseases are slowed and stopped by public heath and population reaction as the disease spreads. There's even a toy model on to play with!

    4 proslijeđena tweeta 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
  5. 28. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Heres' some much less wild speculation, from my paper in Health Security on uncertainties in estimating the probability of pandemics: And here is a preprint with a model explaining those dynamics more clearly:

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
  6. 22. pro 2019.
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Unsurprisingly / unfortunately, all the best recipes I've found are the Hebrew ones:

    1 reply
  7. 15. pro 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    "...decisions are usually defined by their inputs." Yes, that's what "Decision Quality" and similar approaches to decision analysis consider. They can evaluate the inputs to improve the decision processes. Professor Ronald Howard discusses this here:

    1 reply 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  8. 13. pro 2019.

    Side point - Steven mentions OODA loops, and says that Boyd was talking about how fighter pilots make decisions. But Boyd, who had been a pilot, understood OODA loops as a far more general tool. I made this point here:

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  9. 13. pro 2019.

    Steven has his standard diagram for how the process works, but I like one I made for my dissertation more. (Perhaps I'm biased.) RDM says not to get stuck on agreement on the analysis, and start from criteria selection and alternative generation instead.

    1 reply
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  10. 13. pro 2019.

    Now, I'm in the middle of presenting my work on superforecasting the long term future. cc: Note: Instead of trying to tweet right now, I pre-scheduled this tweet. Since there's no way to thread scheduled tweets, I'll just provide my outline.

    1 reply 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  11. 13. pro 2019.

    He's now talking about the difficulty of incentives with scoring rules, and using Prelec's approach - - applied to longer-term forecasts (which are unknown for now) rather than PRelec's application to subjective data (which is never known.)

    1 reply 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  12. 1. pro 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Conditioning on non-extinction matters, as does not discussing time scales. And looking at your data, the multi-modal distribution is also very interesting;

    1 reply 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  13. 1. pro 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Interesting to compare 's survey results of his followers to a weighted US pop. sample from Survey which was far more negative about the long term future. Negative Outlook Robin sample vs. representative US sample- 10 Years: 35% vs 36% 100 Years: 25% vs 39%

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
  14. 28. stu 2019.
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    The selection bias here seems significant, as usual when you run these twitter polls. In this case, I'm interested in how much. I'm going to re-run this as a google survey - 250 people, and I'll update once I have the data.

    7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
  15. 20. stu 2019.

    Interesting point on institutions and how they enforce norms, from an old post by musing about "structural asymmetries."

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
  16. 18. stu 2019.

    Side note: the "ABCs of Math" board-book from this series, by , is easily my favorite book to read to the kids for their bed-time story. (And yes, it gets requested occasionally.)

    8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  17. 18. stu 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    The "ABCs of Math" board-book from this series is awesome, though.

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  18. 11. stu 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Second try at that image:

    1 reply
  19. 11. stu 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    Interesting. Regarding actual revolutions, here's the recent data, analyzed by Krause and . The data seems to show that there is some link between relative inequality and distributive revolutions, even without absolute poverty.

    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
  20. 7. stu 2019.

    Maybe the 's select agent program web site *shouldn't* show people without proper safety gear playing with (pretend) dangerous pathogens? I know the web designers aren't the experts, but still.

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa

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