David Manheim

@davidmanheim

Research and policy for making unlikely global catastrophes even less likely. . Previously , ,

Joined January 2009

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    10 Jan 2019

    Metrics can be used well - they often aren't. And many of the issues created by their misuse can be addressed by better design. In case you haven't seen me mention it yet, here's my new paper on doing metric design more thoughtfully:

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  2. Got a revise and resubmit with a note that the review process is *single* blind, so I need to include our names on the revised paper. I could say that it seems shady and counter to peer review best practice - but the reviewers might look up my Twitter account, so I won't.

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  3. Retweeted

    When I wrote Bad Data, I had an inkling of the deeper motivations behind metrics and why they often fail us. I stumbled upon this article by and it gave a lot of clarity to my ideas. Read it. Goodhart's Law and Why Measurement is Hard

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  4. Retweeted
    18 Jun 2019

    Some very interesting work on Goodhart-like effects in optimisation, multiparty dynamics, and incentive engineering.

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  5. Feb 2

    Evidently, conditional probabilities are hard. These prediction markets are not worth trusting, especially for low probabilities or precise estimates. (via ) Also, the Yang number is far less egregious than Hillary at... 6%?!? cc: ,

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  6. Retweeted
    Feb 1

    A great example would be the following article discussing a "burned" UAC bypass. It was disclosed 19 February 2019. It's now included in TRICKBOT. Disclosure does not actually equate to loss of utility, especially in the category of threats most face.

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  7. Retweeted
    Feb 1

    Of course not: with planes, we have rigorous safety requirements. "This was no accident: it could have been prevented by following the safety rules" is a thing that a person can reasonably say about airplanes. We have designed spaces with a built in homicide rate from drivers.

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  8. Retweeted
    Feb 1

    When I meet people who are claiming to expect imminent doom I try to resist the urge to ask: "So, can I have your stuff? I want to use it for my long-term projects."

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  9. Jan 30

    Not sure that the recommendations here are the best ones - sick people should try to stay home, not just wear masks - but this was well done. (via mailing list)

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  10. Jan 30

    No, technology isn't magic. But I just realized it's been 30 years, and I can buy a disposable USB 3.0 flash drive with 10,000x as much storage and 15x faster read/write compared to my first hard drive - for 5% of the price.

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  11. Retweeted
    Jan 30

    As former director & now I've observed the deadly cycle of panic & neglect that comes with epidemics. I shared my thoughts with on what we KNOW we must do—invest in preparedness.

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  12. Retweeted
    Jan 29

    We classify xrisks by how/why they cause damage, how they become global, and how they reach everyone. Each of these have corresponding defences. We can usually best reduce extinction risk by splitting our budget between all defence layers - but look for synergies!

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  13. Retweeted
    Jan 29

    Our new paper is out: "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction:Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter"

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  14. Retweeted
    Jan 28

    My wife and I never talk to our kids. We ask them to submit all communications anonymously through rigorous and double-blind peer review. My daughter is 5 and has 21 publications in high-impact journals. My daughter can burn holes in furniture using only her eyes

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  15. Retweeted
    Jan 28

    Important point to make -- symptomatic patients coughing, sneezing, etc are the drivers of the trajectory as their is a continuum of contagiousness

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  16. Retweeted
    Jan 28

    Seems like a good time to mention a preprint I wrote about the dynamics of how worst-case infectious diseases are slowed and stopped by public heath and population reaction as the disease spreads. There's even a toy model on to play with!

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  17. Retweeted
    Jan 28

    The is not the only virus we should pay attention to. Influenza is now widespread in the US. Wash your hands, cover your cough, don't go out if you're sick, and see a doctor quickly if you may have flu - early treatment can help

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  18. Jan 28

    Seems like a good time to mention a preprint I wrote about the dynamics of how worst-case infectious diseases are slowed and stopped by public heath and population reaction as the disease spreads. There's even a toy model on to play with!

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  19. Retweeted

    I've noted myself that naive CFR estimates are prone to fluctuation, but I also think it's important to recognize what they are, how they're defined, & calculate them as such. Other measures of fatality are welcome, but we should call them what they are (& not what they aren't).

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  20. Jan 28

    Interesting speculation from Dany Shoham that the novel Coronavirus could be related to the supposed Chinese bioweapons program. There's no evidence other than the fact that the Chinese Institute of Virology is located in Wuhan, and is the only (declared) P4/BSL-4 lab in China.

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  21. Retweeted
    Jan 27
    Replying to and

    I am sure one can construct a pandemic-safe world. But the timescale, cost, and political capital of changing travel, business, rights are pretty big. Getting there from here in an acceptable way is interesting and nontrivial. Just proposing grand solutions are unlikely to work.

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