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Metrics can be used well - they often aren't. And many of the issues created by their misuse can be addressed by better design. In case you haven't seen me mention it yet, here's my new paper on doing metric design more thoughtfully: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90649/1/MPRA_paper_90649.pdf …pic.twitter.com/A1xoDSYSLv
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Got a revise and resubmit with a note that the review process is *single* blind, so I need to include our names on the revised paper. I could say that it seems shady and counter to peer review best practice - but the reviewers might look up my Twitter account, so I won't.
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David Manheim Retweeted
When I wrote Bad Data, I had an inkling of the deeper motivations behind metrics and why they often fail us. I stumbled upon this article by
@davidmanheim and it gave a lot of clarity to my ideas. Read it. Goodhart's Law and Why Measurement is Hardhttps://www.ribbonfarm.com/2016/06/09/goodharts-law-and-why-measurement-is-hard/ …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
David Manheim Retweeted
Some very interesting work on Goodhart-like effects in optimisation, multiparty dynamics, and incentive engineering.https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1140929954080858112 …
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Evidently, conditional probabilities are hard. These prediction markets are not worth trusting, especially for low probabilities or precise estimates. (via
@HowieLempel) Also, the Yang number is far less egregious than Hillary at... 6%?!? cc:@superforecaster,@PTetlockpic.twitter.com/dx5ho65SsY
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David Manheim Retweeted
A great example would be the following article discussing a "burned" UAC bypass. It was disclosed 19 February 2019. It's now included in TRICKBOT. Disclosure does not actually equate to loss of utility, especially in the category of threats most face.https://blog.morphisec.com/trickbot-uses-a-new-windows-10-uac-bypass …
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David Manheim Retweeted
Of course not: with planes, we have rigorous safety requirements. "This was no accident: it could have been prevented by following the safety rules" is a thing that a person can reasonably say about airplanes. We have designed spaces with a built in homicide rate from drivers.https://twitter.com/A_W_Gordon/status/1223597670415007754 …
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David Manheim Retweeted
When I meet people who are claiming to expect imminent doom I try to resist the urge to ask: "So, can I have your stuff? I want to use it for my long-term projects."
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Not sure that the recommendations here are the best ones - sick people should try to stay home, not just wear masks - but this was well done.
#Fight_The_Virus#Wuhan#Song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIGMLTQj5y4 … (via@ABSAOffice#Biosafety mailing list)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
No, technology isn't magic. But I just realized it's been 30 years, and I can buy a disposable USB 3.0 flash drive with 10,000x as much storage and 15x faster read/write compared to my first hard drive - for 5% of the price.
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David Manheim Retweeted
As former
@CDCgov director & now@ResolveTSL I've observed the deadly cycle of panic & neglect that comes with epidemics. I shared my thoughts with@washingtonpost on what we KNOW we must do—invest in preparedness.#nCoV#coronavirushttps://wapo.st/2u5YHbMThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
David Manheim Retweeted
We classify xrisks by how/why they cause damage, how they become global, and how they reach everyone. Each of these have corresponding defences. We can usually best reduce extinction risk by splitting our budget between all defence layers - but look for synergies!
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David Manheim Retweeted
Our new paper is out: "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction:Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12786 …
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David Manheim Retweeted
My wife and I never talk to our kids. We ask them to submit all communications anonymously through rigorous and double-blind peer review. My daughter is 5 and has 21 publications in high-impact journals. My daughter can burn holes in furniture using only her eyeshttps://twitter.com/thebrometheus/status/1221034141765922816 …
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David Manheim Retweeted
Important point to make -- symptomatic patients coughing, sneezing, etc are the drivers of the trajectory as their is a continuum of contagiousnesshttps://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1222203663893950464 …
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David Manheim Retweeted
Seems like a good time to mention a preprint I wrote about the dynamics of how worst-case infectious diseases are slowed and stopped by public heath and population reaction as the disease spreads. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/401018v1 … There's even a toy
#RShiny model on@github to play with!pic.twitter.com/xIWpO0DHXT
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David Manheim Retweeted
The
#coronavirus is not the only virus we should pay attention to. Influenza is now widespread in the US. Wash your hands, cover your cough, don't go out if you're sick, and see a doctor quickly if you may have flu - early treatment can helphttps://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1221831995795345409 …
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Seems like a good time to mention a preprint I wrote about the dynamics of how worst-case infectious diseases are slowed and stopped by public heath and population reaction as the disease spreads. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/401018v1 … There's even a toy
#RShiny model on@github to play with!pic.twitter.com/xIWpO0DHXT
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David Manheim Retweeted
I've noted myself that naive CFR estimates are prone to fluctuation, but I also think it's important to recognize what they are, how they're defined, & calculate them as such. Other measures of fatality are welcome, but we should call them what they are (& not what they aren't).https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1220017244916326401 …
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Interesting speculation from Dany Shoham that the novel Coronavirus could be related to the supposed Chinese bioweapons program. There's no evidence other than the fact that the Chinese Institute of Virology is located in Wuhan, and is the only (declared) P4/BSL-4 lab in China.https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1221932272603074560 …
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David Manheim Retweeted
I am sure one can construct a pandemic-safe world. But the timescale, cost, and political capital of changing travel, business, rights are pretty big. Getting there from here in an acceptable way is interesting and nontrivial. Just proposing grand solutions are unlikely to work.
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