David Chapman

Thread on my election prediction: My prediction is based solely on history and historical trends. The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19. There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present).

many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers. This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy. There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend.

since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. 2 of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.

In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.

Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote. We've never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M.

The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes. We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.