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David Lim
@davidalim
CDC's estimate for the prevalence of Omicron last week dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%. 12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%.
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Ozair Naqvi
@ozair_naqvi
Omicron has taken over not only on a national level but region level (see Region 6). Note that 73.2% was a point estimate. The 95% confidence interval was 34 - 94.9%, could be higher than we feared. 4/9
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David Lim
@davidalim
CDC just responded to my initial inquiry: "There was a wide predictive interval posted in last week’s chart, in part because of the speed at which Omicron was increasing. We had more data come in from that timeframe and there was a reduced proportion of Omicron."
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David Lim
@davidalim
I've followed up with a few questions, I wonder if the preference for sequencing s-gene dropouts (labs were looking for the first cases of Omicron in the U.S.) made the Nowcast modeling more challenging initially.
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Mr. Talus
@talus_mr
Thanks
@davidalim
for following up on the data with CDC. It was clear last week when the Nowcast numbers were published that they were garbage. This didn't help their already dismal credibility. Looks totally political.
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