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First important thing is where PA-18 is and what that means. It's got some rural areas + southern suburbs of Pittsburgh.pic.twitter.com/VDhcTiYH7Y
And Pittsburgh has been changing *a lot* politically. This is a gif of maps that my friend @JMilesColeman made (Miles made these really great maps, I just stuck them in a gif maker).
Illustrates how Ds have kept the core of the city but lost outlying areas.pic.twitter.com/QxPyQGIZNh
And that trend has mattered in PA-18.
Combining data from @JMilesColeman and @DKElections, percentage of the vote for GOP presidential candidates in PA-18 was:
2000 - 49.7%
2004 - 53.3%
2008 - 55.2%
2012 - 57.9%
2016 - 58.1%https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0 …
Demographically, PA-18 is really really white. But rate of college ed among whites not much different than some of the other districts with specials so farpic.twitter.com/3h4emEJTWJ
And it's really red -- Trump won there by 20 points in 2016.
IOW it's not exactly the same as other districts that have held specials -- Pittsburgh =/= Montana =/= Utah 3 =/= South Carolina 5 etc But a lot of these special House districts are super red, so we can still make useful comparisons.pic.twitter.com/jkSs5RPdGA
Saccone could underperform Trump by a LOT and still win. An average underperformance (11% below Trump's margin as of yesterday IIRC) still puts him in the House.pic.twitter.com/bNMLmxtqSl
BUT it's not a sure thing because there is a TON of variance in how individual specials have turned out. Some big R overperformances, some huge D overperformances Lamb could win if he replicates some of the better D overperformancespic.twitter.com/nykV5Nr8SG
But for the time being, it's best to take polls into account and not assume that Lamb is going to be better than average. Should rate it as better for Rs than a toss-up, but not a sure thing.
And when all is said and done, can use the data to gauge 2018 environment. Can add it to the average of specials (though we have a lot in that average already) And will be worth noting if SW PA Rs, Ds vote differently than Rs, Ds in other regions
Last thing: the new PA maps don't change this analysis much b/c it's about the special + what *those* results mean for 2018.
If you want a good piece on the PA maps from today, would recommend this from @SeanTrende:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/24/do_democrats_stand_to_gain_from_redrawn_pa_maps_136084.html …
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