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databyler's profile
David Byler
David Byler
David Byler
Verified account
@databyler

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David BylerVerified account

@databyler

Politics, elections, stats at @washingtonpost @postopinions. @weeklystandard, @realclearnews alum. WV ➡️ NJ ➡️ DC ➡️ NJ ➡️ CA. Math person.

david.anthony.byler at gmail
Joined September 2014

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    1. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

      OKAY people I have a pre-debate piece up Basically the idea is that debates under current conditions (lots of candidates, not a ton of knowledge, early, primary) can matter! But you shouldn't overhype them either -- they prob will only change so much https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/24/primary-debates-matter-not-much-you-probably-think-they-do/ …pic.twitter.com/HketWKsck6

      2 replies 10 retweets 23 likes
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    2. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

      In the last couple big crowded primaries (2012R, 2016R), the average candidate basically didn't gain or lose support after a debate! That's because many candidates are Bobby Jindal or George Pataki, who never got a lot of support despite really trying in debates, speeches, etc

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

      Debates can matter Like Rick Perry's spectacular fall was actually kicked off by him defending some immigration reform stuff (not the oops! thing) in a debate Gingrich's surges (and arguably declines) were in part powered by debates Fiorina had a debate-driven moment

      12:29 PM - 24 Jun 2019
      • 8 Likes
      • Matthew Elliot Lawrence McKay Drord is New Jerseyan, just finds Mississippi neat Sharer of scary COVID news and cat videos Patrick stupid twitt account Drew Savicki Alexander 🐢🏈
      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        2. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          But for most people, most of the time they just sort of do the debate and it passes and that's that

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        3. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          that dynamic makes sense Media and voters w/busy lives tend to want a couple clean headline findings/takeaways So you end up in a situation where post-debate, there's a couple major media narratives that involve a couple candidates and their polls are most likely to move

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        4. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          I'll admit that that ^ is a little more qualitatively driven than some of the normal stuff I write, but I think it works and is generally true.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        5. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          Also it's early but it's not that early You should probably expect some people from the top tier to stick around until the end of this thing. The field prob isn't going to turn totally upside down w/Gabbard fighting Yang and Inslee for first and Warren in last

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        6. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          Debates, no matter how fun and interesting, probably won't really truly fully reshuffle things There's a first time for everything, but that seems like a tall order

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        7. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 Jun 2019

          Anyways my point is that debates matter, but if recent history is a guide (and sometimes it's not) I'd guess that they *can* change some stuff but *probably* won't change everything

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        8. End of conversation
        1. Odious Taint‏ @VOXtoldmeso 24 Jun 2019
          Replying to @databyler

          Gillibrand is the best bet to do something ridiculous.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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