Biden and Romney are both *the closest thing to a next-in-line candidate (tho Biden is more that than Romney) *changed positions over time to match party *pitched as most electable *acceptable to party leaders but doesn't have wide establishment support *has unsafe poll lead
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there are OBVIOUS differences between them Trump is prob more vulnerable than Obama (though both thought to be beatable) Biden is doing better than Romney did on a couple polling metrics (favorability, horse race) the 2012 Rs and 2020 Ds aren't the same thing diff styles etc
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But I think the most important similarity is that it SEEMS *right now* like Biden could be vulnerable to some dark horse type competitors remember Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, etc? I'm not sure why one or more surges couldn't happen to Biden him this timepic.twitter.com/RgKGaBhaxq
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I think Biden is better positioned than Romney to have fewer of those -- Ds are prob gonna be happier w/their field overall and Ds like Biden more than Rs did Romney . Biden also has the benefit of watching 2012 happen to Romney
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BUT the danger for Biden is that his competitors, once they surge, may have more staying power. Just ask yourself -- who is better at surviving and carving out a path to victory after a surge of media attention: Elizabeth Warren or Herman Cain?
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And Warren isn't the only plausible president in the field. There's like a dozen or so of them! Any of whom could get "discovered" and make better use of their opportunity than Rick Perry did
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Also side note -- I think the within-lane challenge to Biden is underrated I think we're all waiting for a titanic prog vs establishment fight b/c that's what happened last time But like why couldn't Klobuchar Booker or O'Rourke surge and try to fight Biden from w/in his lane?
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Anyways, I think people forget how many genuinely close calls Romney had in 2012. He was always the front-runner (except maybe Perry for a tiny bit?) but it was a pretty stable thing! And I think there's some fragility (though a different level) for Biden too
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(side note: I didn't talk about the general election at all in the piece. I didn't really think about it when writing. The comparison is meant to just go to the primary and not be some comprehensive theory. It's more just sort of a set of notable, interesting similarities)
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End of conversation
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NJ