A couple super quick thoughts on this piece https://www.thecut.com/2019/05/who-will-win-2020-election-impossible-to-know.html …
-
-
I do think that there's a type of punditry that talks about everything in binaries, always makes hard predictions w/complete certainties, never reflects on its mistakes and is generally v bad A lot of what we see in elections analysis now is a reaction against that sort of thing
Show this thread -
Like I actually think the Underwood race is one where the data was helpful and should have made us less certain If the trailing candidate has a ~40% chance of winning, that is a very very very very real race. There, data pushed against the "this race is over" cw for good reason
Show this thread -
I think there are v important issues/questions around communicating probabilities, talking through why people and/or models project the things they do, getting a handle on what we don't know/see w/ different methods But I think we can (and do) work on those and know some things
Show this thread -
Also there is a ton of not-so-great, baseless, highly confident takes on stuff like electability. My instinct when I see stuff like that is to try to respond w/something thought out and conscious of its limits (shameless plug for my electability series https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/21/electability-is-about-more-than-appealing-blue-collar-midwesterners/?utm_term=.a0b3feefc958 …)
Show this thread -
I think the question of how writing for the public on a subject changes behavior is legit. My hope is that being conscious of that question, trying to have diverse voices and methods etc can help writers in lots of areas (maybe not just politics) figure out how to deal w/that
Show this thread -
IDK. There's a lot more we can talk about re empiricism and the problem of induction and the blind spots introduced by who is doing what in which industries but basically my thought is that, done properly, good elections analysis can help w/some concerns that have been laid out
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Polling reduces, but doesn’t eliminate, uncertainty. Why do people just focus on the remaining uncertainty and just throw their hands up?
-
I had a prof in undergrad who repeatedly said that just because completely sterile surgery is impossible is no reason to perform it in a sewer.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
NJ