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databyler's profile
David Byler
David Byler
David Byler
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@databyler

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David BylerVerified account

@databyler

Politics, elections, stats at @washingtonpost @postopinions. @weeklystandard, @realclearnews alum. WV ➡️ NJ ➡️ DC ➡️ NJ ➡️ CA. Math person.

david.anthony.byler at gmail
Joined September 2014

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    1. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

      A couple super quick thoughts on this piece https://www.thecut.com/2019/05/who-will-win-2020-election-impossible-to-know.html …

      1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
      David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

      I think there's a ton of middle space between "we know everything" and "we know nothing." My experience of data journalism / elections analysis stuff is that the toughest, most important task isn't figuring out what the most likely case is -- it's gauging certainty levels

      8:37 AM - 24 May 2019
      • 4 Retweets
      • 23 Likes
      • Austin Aaron Moriak, 1st Voivode of ET 🔰🗽🧦🇪🇺 Ducky Jandro Aaron Good Belli Sam Wolsk Glic Jeff B. is *BOX OFFICE POISON*
      3 replies 4 retweets 23 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          I do think that there's a type of punditry that talks about everything in binaries, always makes hard predictions w/complete certainties, never reflects on its mistakes and is generally v bad A lot of what we see in elections analysis now is a reaction against that sort of thing

          2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
          Show this thread
        3. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          Like I actually think the Underwood race is one where the data was helpful and should have made us less certain If the trailing candidate has a ~40% chance of winning, that is a very very very very real race. There, data pushed against the "this race is over" cw for good reason

          1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        4. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          I think there are v important issues/questions around communicating probabilities, talking through why people and/or models project the things they do, getting a handle on what we don't know/see w/ different methods But I think we can (and do) work on those and know some things

          2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
          Show this thread
        5. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          Also there is a ton of not-so-great, baseless, highly confident takes on stuff like electability. My instinct when I see stuff like that is to try to respond w/something thought out and conscious of its limits (shameless plug for my electability series https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/21/electability-is-about-more-than-appealing-blue-collar-midwesterners/?utm_term=.a0b3feefc958 …)

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          I think the question of how writing for the public on a subject changes behavior is legit. My hope is that being conscious of that question, trying to have diverse voices and methods etc can help writers in lots of areas (maybe not just politics) figure out how to deal w/that

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        7. David Byler‏Verified account @databyler 24 May 2019

          IDK. There's a lot more we can talk about re empiricism and the problem of induction and the blind spots introduced by who is doing what in which industries but basically my thought is that, done properly, good elections analysis can help w/some concerns that have been laid out

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. SbWisLaw‏ @SbWisLaw 24 May 2019
          Replying to @databyler

          Polling reduces, but doesn’t eliminate, uncertainty. Why do people just focus on the remaining uncertainty and just throw their hands up?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. SbWisLaw‏ @SbWisLaw 24 May 2019
          Replying to @SbWisLaw @databyler

          I had a prof in undergrad who repeatedly said that just because completely sterile surgery is impossible is no reason to perform it in a sewer.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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