How good are people at making decisions? http://danluu.com/bad-decisions/
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Oops sorry we're cross-posting because Twitter threading is confusing.
Yeah I started replying before your reply was sent :-(. On the sac bunt, in many (most? I'd have to look at the numbers again), it doesn't even increase the probability of scoring a single run, so it doesn't make sense even when ahead (or tied). I didn't go into this in detail
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because it's irrelevant to the main point.
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I actually had two paragraphs in my draft refuting this reasoning the same way I have a couple paragraphs refuting the walk tweet that you posted then deleted (that deletion is the other reason the responses aren't linear). I may put that back, but I don't know what to do about..
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...the general problem of there being an unbounded number of "corrections" to refute. By volume, this post is roughly half defense against nitpicking but this was clearly not enough and yet also way too much.
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