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danluu's profile
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
@danluu

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Dan Luu

@danluu

https://patreon.com/danluu 

danluu.com
Joined December 2008

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    1. Dan Luu‏ @danluu 21 Nov 2017
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      How good are people at making decisions? http://danluu.com/bad-decisions/ 

      7 replies 15 retweets 73 likes
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    2. Ben Kuhn‏ @benskuhn 22 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @danluu

      I don't think your model gives the right answers for how good/bad baseball decisions are. You should be looking at ∆p(win), not ∆runs. If you're behind, you want to take -EV but high-variance bets because it still increases ∆p(win).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Ben Kuhn‏ @benskuhn 22 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @benskuhn @danluu

      For instance, if you're behind by enough runs, it makes sense to steal even if it's -EV. Similarly, if you're ahead by enough, it makes sense to do a -EV sac bunt.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Ben Kuhn‏ @benskuhn 22 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @benskuhn @danluu

      (I've seen other more convincing analyses of quantifiably bad decisionmaking, so I still buy the general point, just being a stats pedant :P )

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Dan Luu‏ @danluu 22 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @benskuhn

      I directionally agree on the steal example, but I think that in that particular case the delta between the naive calculation and your calculation should be tiny relative to conventional wisdom vs. the naive calculation.

      5:22 PM - 22 Nov 2017
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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