How good are people at making decisions? http://danluu.com/bad-decisions/
If this is significant (not sure, haven't run the numbers) this should tilt decision making even further from conventional wisdom than it is today.
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Not sure I follow? You say that people steal bases when they shouldn't because stealing is –EV. I'm claiming that even though it's –EV(runs), people's current decisions could be more rational than this seems because the steals are still +p(win) if they're down.
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Oops sorry we're cross-posting because Twitter threading is confusing.
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