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danluu's profile
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
@danluu

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Dan Luu

@danluu

https://patreon.com/danluu 

danluu.com
Joined December 2008

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    Dan Luu‏ @danluu 21 Nov 2017
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    How good are people at making decisions? http://danluu.com/bad-decisions/ 

    7:27 AM - 21 Nov 2017
    • 15 Retweets
    • 71 Likes
    • sean 6ix9ine4our Kuan-Ying Chou Gabriel Franklin He Sam Habiel Oleksii Aseem Kishore Ivan
    7 replies 15 retweets 71 likes
      1. Dan Luu‏ @danluu 21 Nov 2017
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        A side effect of the lack of data on practices is that charismatic people with compelling stories have outsized influence. How many folks learned Lisp because of this story? The two most valuable startups of that era (GOOG&AMZN) were Blub-based, but this story still has currencypic.twitter.com/mxZJd5kiu5

        6 replies 21 retweets 86 likes
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      2. Ben Kuhn‏ @benskuhn 22 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        I don't think your model gives the right answers for how good/bad baseball decisions are. You should be looking at ∆p(win), not ∆runs. If you're behind, you want to take -EV but high-variance bets because it still increases ∆p(win).

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dan Luu‏ @danluu 22 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @benskuhn

        If this is significant (not sure, haven't run the numbers) this should tilt decision making even further from conventional wisdom than it is today.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 27 more replies
      1. Hoverbikes‏ @hoverbikes 21 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        Here’s a similar argument re: “going for it on fourth” in the NFL. Do Firms Maximize? https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf …

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Sergey Mushinskiy‏ @cepera_ang 21 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        Dan, have you considered making your blog more visually appealing? I know your stance about speed and so on but it could be made much cleaner by adding handful of css lines. Google for motherfuckingwebsite (look like yours) and its evolution in better, best, etc versions

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Justin Blank‏ @hyperpape 21 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        To really match the "big successful company must be making good decisions" argument, you'd want to show that the best baseball teams made bad decisions.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Justin Blank‏ @hyperpape 21 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @hyperpape @danluu

        The argument that market leaders must be making good decisions doesn't imply no one makes bad decisions, just that they then decline in revenue/profit.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Furry Programmer, Shaven Yak‏ @nitsanw 22 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        Without reading, I'm going to say... not very? "History, read it and weep!" to quote Kurt V.

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      1. Ron Pressler‏ @pressron 22 Nov 2017
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        Replying to @danluu

        Two interesting things to consider: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_fundamental_theorem_of_natural_selection … and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_equation … I.e., 1/ rate of change is related to variance, so conformity (often justified) slows change, and 2/ the rate of adoption of a new practice is related to its actual bottom-line payoff.

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