IMO, the things that are most opaque about options are the rates of events that screw over employees. VCs have enough data to know this, but
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Something else I'm curious about is how much 7 or 10 year exercise windows change attrition (compared to 90 day).
Ben implies that startup attrit is because people rationally walk away from options they can keep, but in fact most people lose options...
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...when they walk and they still do it. Most unicorns, even ones not having their valuations marked down, have (IMO) high attrit
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Empirically, the almost all unicorns have 90-day exercise windows and attrit is still v. high, so attrit cannot be as claimed in article
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Despite living in diff locations and having diff social circles, I think we know >= 1 person in common who's walked away from a lot of
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AFAICT, startup attrit happens in spite of income-maximizing decisions and not because of them.
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