Pretty sure we decided that they fit a cubic to log(deaths), not to deaths. So log(deaths) goes to negative infinity as deaths goes to zero.
Yeah, I started studying stats a bit in my spare time since I keep running into data related problems. Before I started, I thought I might be able to turn a lot of the thinking I do into mechanical processes, but I don't think that's really been the case at all.
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Andrew Gelman, Statistical Rethinking, etc., all emphasize how these techniques aren't substitutes for deeply understanding the problem domain. I agree there are techniques that are helpful checks, but applying them blindly can really go off the railshttps://twitter.com/danluu/status/1162139780299145216?lang=en …
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I can't tell if this is really different from programming or not? My feeling is that programming is easier to do mechanically (when you're not inventing truly novel algorithms or whatever), but I don't think I can really justify that feeling.
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It's really interesting to me how much of statistical analysis is just implementing subjective heuristic judgment calls. And half the rest is "this is the easy thing to compute, so we'll start with it and see if it works."
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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