I find the SSC "Too much dark money in almonds" post interesting because it starts from the premise that there obviously isn't too much dark money in almonds, an argument from incredulity, and uses this (and similar) to argue that there isn't too much dark money in politics, but
You could argue that desalinization costs (plus transport costs) should be an upper bound to the impact of bad water policy. I don't think that's literally true, but just to have a number, that gives you a number that's not too far off the McKinsey estimate when computed naively.
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But my top-line response is really that this isn't thoroughly fact checked, could be quite wrong!https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1254965172424175617 …
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