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danluu's profile
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
Dan Luu
@danluu

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Dan Luu

@danluu

https://patreon.com/danluu 

danluu.com
Joined December 2008

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    1. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 27
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      I find the SSC "Too much dark money in almonds" post interesting because it starts from the premise that there obviously isn't too much dark money in almonds, an argument from incredulity, and uses this (and similar) to argue that there isn't too much dark money in politics, but

      4 replies 2 retweets 45 likes
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    2. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 27
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      if you start looking at almonds, it seems like there's too much dark money in almonds? For example, here's a water policy expert who thinks a lot about CA water policy discussing the impact of almonds on CA https://onthepublicrecord.org/2015/05/05/turning-the-tables-on-almonds/ … https://onthepublicrecord.org/2015/04/17/more-almonds-make-them-prove-they-have-the-water-first/ …https://onthepublicrecord.org/2008/12/17/i-dont-even-like-wine/ …

      3 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
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    3. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 27
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      Those posts are targeted at an audience of water policy nerds, so they don't lay out the full case because it's expected that readers will generally know what's going on in CA water policy, but IMO, if you look into this in detail there's a decent case to be made that

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    4. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 27
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      California water policy is a disaster on the same scale as California housing policy, caused in part by water policy that enriches some of the richest people in California, e.g., almond billionaires, at the expense of most others.

      7 replies 1 retweet 52 likes
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    5. Ben Kuhn‏ @benskuhn Apr 28
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      Whoa literally on the same scale? The first estimate on google for CA housing policy costs is $140b/yr in lost output,* do you think water is comparable or that’s too high for housing? *https://imanetwork.org/blog/2019/07/15/the-economic-consequences-of-californias-housing-crisis/ …

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    6. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 28
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      Replying to @benskuhn

      I don't think that estimate is implausible. They estimate that people reduce consumer spending by a bit less than $1k per person per year due to housing costs and then estimate other effects that are double that, that could be right.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 28
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      Replying to @danluu @benskuhn

      I think it's really difficult to do a direct comparison to water policy since most of the impact is expected to be in the future, I don't think it's implausible that current policies extrapolated into the future would have impact within an order of magnitude.

      7:29 PM - 28 Apr 2020
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        2. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 28
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          Replying to @danluu @benskuhn

          But I think this isn't quite the right comparison -- housing costs, while problematic, have relatively diffuse impact, a water district self destructing has much higher local impact. You can assign a dollar value to that, but it's always going to be handwave-y.

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        3. Dan Luu‏ @danluu Apr 28
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          Replying to @danluu @benskuhn

          You could argue that desalinization costs (plus transport costs) should be an upper bound to the impact of bad water policy. I don't think that's literally true, but just to have a number, that gives you a number that's not too far off the McKinsey estimate when computed naively.

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