A lot of things in modern tech we don't think are useful- up-front design, code comments, estimations- are just skills we aren't pushed to practice. Of course they won't be useful if we're terrible at doing them!
-
Show this thread
-
I've talked with people who have actively trained themselves in estimation and they can estimate tasks pretty dead-on. But they worked to get better at giving good estimates
7 replies 3 retweets 24 likesShow this thread -
See also su3su2u1's rant about scope insensitivity, and how it might be something that people just don't train themselves inpic.twitter.com/NR2QXadd2t
2 replies 1 retweet 22 likesShow this thread -
-
Replying to @hillelogram
Funny, despite hosting this, the biggest problem (with my writing) in my last post was that I underestimated this problem. Many (a plurality?) of the objections are something like "No way, X is 95%-ile, that's very hard" where X = 2200 chess player, NBA player, D-I athlete, etc.
1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes -
Replying to @danluu @hillelogram
But a 2200 USCF player is roughly top 1000 in the U.S., perhaps 1 in 100000 across all people who have played chess in the U.S., not 1 in 20, off by 4-5 orders of magnitude. I think looking at NBA players is probably an error of 5+ orders of magnitude.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @danluu @hillelogram
Being clearer about who counts would help. My assumption for chess was that the relevant class was "people who've played a game in the past 1-2 years", which I suspect is less than 100 million.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
For instance, I think I play more chess than the average human being, but a histogram of 2 year periods in my (> 6 year old life) of how many games of chess I played chess would probably split: 0, 0, 1 - 50, 50+, 50+.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Though 2200 chess rating = 95% percentile is off base by any reasonable standard.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Sure, that reduces the error by probably 1-2 orders of magnitude? Also, in that case, the commenter was also specifically referring to people who'd played more than 4-5 games ever, so that was their choice of framing and not mine.
-
-
Replying to @danluu @hillelogram
Agreed. Reflecting more, I'm not sure if there's anything to do (as a writer) about readers making that kind of error.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.